C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans have built a reputation for fast starts, and that’s exactly why betting on them in the first half on Saturday feels like a smart play. Houston leads the league in first-half cover rate, going an impressive 14-4 against the spread (ATS) during the regular season. Sure, their second-half performances can be inconsistent, but when it comes to first-half bets, who cares about the final score?
This trend held strong during their Wild Card matchup against the Chargers last weekend. Despite being slight underdogs, the Texans took control early, heading into halftime with a 10-6 lead. Now, they’re gearing up for an even tougher challenge at Arrowhead against the two-time defending champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. But there are plenty of reasons to think Houston can come out swinging again.
For starters, the Chiefs may not be as sharp as usual early on. Thanks to their first-round bye, Kansas City hasn’t played in two weeks. Add in the fact that most of their starters rested in Week 18, and you’re looking at key players like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce going nearly a month without significant game action. While the Chiefs are one of the most talented teams in the league and capable of shaking off rust quickly, it’s fair to expect a slower start as they settle back into rhythm.
Meanwhile, the Texans are riding a wave of momentum. Stroud and his offense are clicking, and Houston’s defense has proven capable of keeping opponents in check early in games. Momentum matters in the postseason, especially against a team that’s been off for an extended period. Plus, the Texans know they can’t afford to be playing from behind against Kansas City, so a fast start is paramount if they want to give them a chance to upset the champs.
Kansas City went 9-8 ATS in the first half this season, including just 4-4 ATS at home. While they were 2-1 ATS in the first half when playing on extra rest, that stat doesn’t include their Week 18 game without starters and doesn’t account for how extended layoffs can disrupt timing, even for elite teams.
Houston’s knack for starting strong combined with Kansas City’s potential early-game rust makes the Texans a solid first-half play on Saturday. Whether they can hold on for a full-game upset is a different conversation, but if history is any indication, Stroud and company will be ready to make their presence known from the opening snap.