With the NFL Wild Card Round now behind us, we can focus all of our attention on the Divisional Round, where we have some very interesting matchups to analyze. I’ve been buried deep in the books the last couple days, looking at every angle I can find before I decide to make a wager on one side or the other. There is so much to go over, but there have been several things that stood out to me as I researched each team and their previous contests. I’ve been writing about them the last few days, and I found another interesting nugget in this one between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.
One thing that often goes overlooked, even though you could argue it is actually the most important aspect of any football game, is the battle in the trenches. While all the attention will be on the quarterbacks as usual, the game is going to be won and lost up front. If either of these teams can’t protect their signal-caller, it could mean a very difficult day for Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud. Obviously, the Chiefs are a very large favorite here at home, so the implications for them are much higher.
Last week, and really most of the season, Houston has been a menace on the defensive line. They rank 5th in sacks, generating a ton of pressure on every drop back, and that could be a serious issue for a Kansas City offensive line that has not been great in pass protection. The Chiefs ranked just 17th in the NFL in sacks allowed, which is below-average, and that could be a real problem if the Texans play anything like they did last week against the Los Angeles Chargers.
In that game, the Texans recorded four sacks and seven tackles for loss. According to Pro Football Focus, Chargers QB Justin Hebert was pressured 11 times through three quarters, five of which were unblocked, resulting in half of his four turnovers. They made life a living hell for him nearly every time he took a snap, and that didn’t go unnoticed by head coach Jim Harbaugh.
“[Herbert’s] gotta be able to finish his throwing motion,” Harbaugh told reporters in his postgame press conference. “We didn’t put him in the position to do that enough. The edge pressure was the best we’ve seen. Pressure on the edge—the pass rush—was outstanding.”
Los Angeles went just 3-for-11 on third down, which is never going to get the job done. Perhaps the most successful thing the Chiefs have done offensively this season has been their ability to convert third downs, ranking 2nd in the NFL in third down conversions. If the Texans want to win this game, their pass rush is going to have to put in a similar effort on that critical down, and stop the Chiefs from extending drives. Not being able to do that is what has killed most of their opponents this year, since Kansas City was just 23rd in yards per play.
So, instead of focusing on Mahomes and Stroud entirely, I feel like the Texans’ defensive line could play a huge part in their chances in this contest. If they can pressure Mahomes and get to him like they did Herbert last week, it is not going to be the walk in the park the 8-point spread is predicting it to be.
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