Things are setting up nicely for a memorable Wild Card Weekend in the NFL. Three of the six games have a spread of a field goal or less, indicating that these games could go either way. Even in the other games, the spread makes things a little more complicated. We decided to look beyond the immediate matchup and find some relevant trends that could play a role in deciding which way to lean against the spread in this week’s Wild Card games. Here are the five
Backing Big Favorites
Since 2020, playoff teams favored at home between 8 and 11.5 points have gone 6-2 ATS and 4-0 ATS in the Wild Card Round. This trend is relevant for both the Ravens and the Bills, who find themselves favored by more than a touchdown at home. To dig even deeper, double-digit favorites since 2020 are 17-1 straight up and 13-5 ATS in the playoffs. After opening as a 9.5-point favorite, the Ravens are now favored by 10 points, taking some hope away from the Steelers despite the fact that they’ve won eight of their last 10 games against the Ravens with all but one of those games being decided by seven points or less.
Post-Detroit Blues
Unfortunately for the Vikings, last week’s loss to the Lions could have more ramifications than simply depriving them of the top seed. Going back to last season, teams are 7-17 ATS in games 2-20 immediately after playing Detroit. Dan Campbell’s teams are bludgeoning teams so badly that they struggle to recover for the following week. The Vikings at least have the benefit of having an extra day to recover. However, the Vikings have rarely looked as bad this season as they did against Detroit in Week 18. Ironically, the last time the Vikings played Detroit, their next game was against the Rams, a game they lost 30-20 as slight road favorites.
Where Were You Last Year?
Since 2003, wild-card favorites that missed the playoffs the previous year are 12-29 ATS. Both the Vikings and Chargers fit into this trend, as both are favored this week despite sitting out the postseason last year. Obviously, that doesn’t bode well for either team’s hopes despite impressive turnarounds in 2024. The Chargers went from 5-12 last season to 11-6 while the Vikings went from 7-10 to 14-3. However, this trend indicates that both should just be happy to be in the playoffs and shouldn’t expect to win despite both being favorites. Ironically, both have horrible memories of their playoff from two years ago. The Vikings somehow lost to Daniel Jones and the Giants while the Chargers lost after taking a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars.
As Close as Expected
With some of these trends working against some of the favorites, it makes sense that there are trends favoring some of this week’s underdogs. Since 2020, teams in the Wild Card Round that are underdogs between 1 and 8.5 points are 10-2 ATS when their previous game margin is between -6 and +37. To take things a step further, underdogs between 1 and 3 points and 6-0 ATS. These trends clearly favor the Texans, Commanders, and Rams, who are all underdogs of 3 points or less. Of course, beating the spread doesn’t guarantee victory for those teams. However, this trend points to these games being as close as the spread indicates.
LaFleur as an Underdog
Just in case the Packers and Eagles were feeling left out by some of these trends, there are a few that refer to this game specifically. Most notably, Matt LaFleur is 24-12-1 ATS as a betting underdog in his career. That includes a 18-5-1 ATS record when his team is an underdog by more than a field goal. With Jordan Love as the starter, that record is 12-7-1 ATS as an underdog and 7-2-1 ATS when the Packers are more than a 3-point underdog. Even with the Eagles going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and 12-1 SU during that stretch, the Packers would appear to have some hope in this game. Keep in mind that just five points separated these teams when they met in Week 1, so another close game could be in the cards.
Related
