It’s hard to believe we’re already at the midpoint of the NFL season, with Week 9 just around the corner! This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup brings an interesting clash as the New York Jets (2-6) host the Houston Texans (6-2). For the Jets, this season has been nothing short of a train wreck. With Aaron Rodgers seemingly running the show from the sidelines, the team has struggled to find consistency and has now dropped five straight, including two consecutive losses since reuniting Rodgers with his old friend, Davante Adams. At this rate, the playoffs feel like a long shot for the Jets.
Meanwhile, the Texans have been a fairly resilient team. They’ve won four of their last five games, picking up another victory over the Colts last Sunday. However, a growing list of injuries (including to both Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins) threatens to disrupt their offensive rhythm and poses a big question mark heading into Thursday’s game.
Despite the turmoil surrounding the Jets, BetMGM currently lists them as 2-point favorites, with the total set at 42.5. According to our BetQL model, there isn’t a strong preference on the side, giving Texans +2 only a one-star recommendation. However, the model is significantly more bullish on the total, with a five-star rating on the over at 42.5.
Texans at Jets Over 42.5 (-110, BetMGM)
The BetQL model sees real value on the over, projecting a 47.5-point game total—5.5 points higher than the current line. The Jets have cashed in on the over in each of their last three games, ending with totals of 43 against the Bills, 52 against the Steelers, and 47 against the Patriots. This recent trend hints that, despite their record, the Jets have the offensive firepower (or defensive lapses) to drive up scores.
While the Texans are 2-6 O/U this season, recent games suggest they can still push past the 42.5 mark. They’ve exceeded that number in five consecutive games, with final game totals of 44, 43, 62, 46, and 43 points. Even with their defensive strengths, this Texans team has found themselves in higher-scoring matchups, which aligns with BetQL's high-scoring projection.
BetQL’s model is predicting a final score of 25-23 in favor of New York, adding value to the first-half over as well, with a projection of 22.5 points versus the current line of 20.5. This lines up as a three-star play, providing yet another angle to consider in what could be a surprisingly high-scoring primetime showdown.
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