There will likely be a lot of scoring during Wild Card Weekend with a few games having the potential to turn into a shootout. Of course, there are only six players who will have the distinction of scoring their game’s first touchdown. It’s a hard bet to get right, although it’s one with a huge upside. That’s why we’re sharing our favorite candidate from all six Wild Card games to score the first touchdown of the game with odds from BetMGM.
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey at Texans (+800)
The Texans actually scored a few more first-quarter points than the Chargers this season, so somebody from Houston might be a better pick to score the first touchdown. However, the Houston offense was such a mess late in the season against the Chiefs and Ravens that the Texans might not find much success against the top-ranked defense in the league. That shifts things back to the Chargers, who are a little short on ideal touchdown candidates with a banged-up receiving corps. McConkey is our favorite anytime touchdown pick in this game, as well as our pick for the first touchdown. The Texans gave up the third-most passing touchdowns in the NFL and were especially vulnerable against slot receivers. That makes McConkey someone Justin Herbert can look to early and often in this game.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Steelers (+350)
If this game goes according to plan, the Ravens will march down the field on their opening drive and use Henry to plunge into the end zone. That’s not a scenario that’s hard to envision given how good Henry has been in recent weeks. He’s rushed for over 130 yards in three straight games, scoring three touchdowns during that stretch. Equally important, there have been seven games this season in which Henry has been the first touchdown scorer. While most of those games came early in the season, over the last few weeks, Henry is putting up the types of numbers he was early in the season. The Ravens are likely to give him the ball early and often until the Steelers prove they can stop him. That should set him up be the first touchdown scorer on Saturday night.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Broncos (+600)
It’s the playoffs, so the Bills will take off the reins as far as Allen running the ball is concerned. Somehow, Buffalo tried to curb Allen’s running until the games mattered, yet he still scored 12 rushing touchdowns. In fairness, the Bills started to let him loose late in the regular season and he scored at least one rushing touchdown in six of his final seven games (excluding his one snap appearance in Week 18). If you remember Denver’s Week 17 game against Cincinnati’s high-powered offense, the Broncos proved to be a tough nut to crack in the red zone. Buffalo’s solution to that will be to let Allen use his legs, which is probably the best weapon the Bills have in that part of the field. In fact, if the Bills get the ball to the one-yard line, it’s a safe bet that Allen will keep the ball on a QB sneak, which is why he’s an excellent first touchdown candidate.
Packers RB Josh Jacobs vs. Eagles (+550)
Somehow, the Eagles rank near the bottom of the NFL in first-quarter points whereas Green Bay is tied for the second most. That means Jacobs will offer far more value as a first touchdown candidate than Saquon Barkley. Of course, the Eagles allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season. But that doesn't mean the Packers aren’t going to try running the ball, especially since Jacobs scored 15 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. With Jordan Love dealing with a little elbow soreness, the Packers will play it safe early and see if Jacobs can get them into the end zone.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Commanders (+700)
The Bucs lead the NFL in first-quarter points while the Commanders are tied for second, making it hard to predict what team will score the first touchdown. Therefore, it's best not to overthink things too much. Evans is the preferred target for Baker Mayfield and he’s scored four touchdowns in his last four games, including the first touchdown of Tampa’s Week 17 win. He’s going to be targeted by Mayfield early and often and has always been a great red-zone target. For what it’s worth, Evans scored the first touchdown of the Week 1 game between the Bucs and Commanders, so it’s not hard to envision him doing the same in the Wild Card Round.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Rams (+600)
The Rams made the playoffs despite scoring the second-fewest first-quarter points in the league. That means Minnesota is far more likely to be the team to find the end zone first, especially since the Vikings finished the season tied for the second-most first-quarter points. After a disastrous game in Week 18, especially in the red zone, Sam Darnold is likely to look toward Jefferson on big plays early in this game, especially if the Vikings are in the red zone. The Rams don’t have a corner who matches up well against Jefferson one-on-one. Jefferson is also a safe option when throwing up a 50-50 ball. That will make Darnold confident in throwing toward Jefferson if the Vikings have a chance to score early, making him a good candidate to score the first touchdown on Monday.
Related
