Boston Red Sox To Win The American League (+1400)
With the Super Bowl now behind us, it is time to start looking ahead to the 2025 MLB season, as pitchers and catchers will be reporting before you know it. The futures market is ripe with all kinds of value right now before the season begins, and I have already put in some wagers that I am going to give out here on site. I have already written about my bets on the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers to win the American League, and now I am adding one more team to my pool for that specific market.
As I have stated in both previous articles, I think that the American League is pretty wide open this season, with no team that is really way ahead of all the others. The Yankees and Astros are going to be the classic favorites as usual, but I honestly don’t see them as a sure thing this year to even make the postseason. As such, I think there is value in taking a shot at some of these underdog teams to win the American League, and I threw some coin on the Boston Red Sox to make it back to the World Series in 2025.
I place a lot of stock in pitching when it comes to my baseball wagers, and any team that makes a drastic improvement in their rotation and bullpen is going to immediately light up as a blip on my radar. Boston has done just that, and I really like what I have seen out of this team over the last year or so. They may not make “huge” splashes like the Juan Soto sweepstakes or Roki Sasaki nonsense where we knew all along he was going to the Dodgers. Instead, they have quietly put together what I believe will be a top-5 starting rotation in MLB.
I’ll start off by talking about the most obvious move, which was trading for Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox. He may have played for the worst team in baseball history last season, but he was the lone bright spot in that miserable franchise. Crochet was unreal, with a sub-3.00 xERA and xFIP in 2024, while generating a 4.5 WAR on a team that won just 41 games. As long as he continues to pitch like that, he is a certified ace that should be in contention for the AL Cy Young award. He would have been last season if his team was historically terrible.
Following Crochet, I would expect either Tanner Houck and Bryan Bello to slot in at No. 2 and No. 3 in the rotation. Neither guy is as good as Crochet is, but they are both very reliable and solid pitchers, and both generated over a 2.5 WAR themselves in 2024. Houck was particularly effective, hovering around a 3.00 xERA and xFIP, which would give Boston a seriously good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Bello would be one of the best No. 3’s in the league.
Then, we have the two uncertainties. Walker Buehler comes in from the Dodgers, who before having Tommy John’s surgery, was one of the best up and coming arms in baseball. Unfortunately, his injury seems to have really impacted his performance, as he hasn’t been the same guy since coming back. However, with a new team and a new season, there is always a chance he regains his previous form. If he does, this rotation goes from very good to truly incredible. Lastly, another former White Sox arm in Lucas Giolito, who also is coming off an injury. It remains to be seen what he is going to be, but if he can also regain his best form, you are looking at a rotation that could rival the Dodgers.
The lineup should be pretty good, and if they are able to land Alex Bregman, it just gets even better. Overall, at 14/1, I think there is very good value here. While there are a lot of uncertainties, they could pay off in a huge way, and I think that is worth betting on in the AL, which is wide open.