Why Corbin Burnes Is a Great Bet to Win the 2025 NL Cy Young
Corbin Burnes has been one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball over the past few seasons. Now, after signing a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks—the richest deal in franchise history—he’s poised to continue his excellence in the National League. At +1500 odds on BetMGM, Burnes presents intriguing value in the NL Cy Young race.
Proven Track Record of Dominance
Since 2021, Burnes has established himself as one of the game’s elite starting pitchers. Here’s a look at his recent performances:
2021 (Brewers): 28 starts, 11-5 record, 2.43 ERA, 167.0 IP, 234 K, 34 BB, 0.94 WHIP (NL Cy Young Winner)
2022 (Brewers): 33 starts, 12-8 record, 2.94 ERA, 202.0 IP, 243 K, 51 BB, 0.97 WHIP
2023 (Brewers): 32 starts, 10-8 record, 3.39 ERA, 193.2 IP, 200 K, 66 BB, 1.07 WHIP
2024 (Orioles): 32 starts, 15-9 record, 2.92 ERA, 194.1 IP, 181 K, 48 BB, 1.10 WHIP
Burnes has consistently posted elite strikeout numbers while maintaining excellent control. Since 2021, he ranks second in MLB with 858 strikeouts, trailing only Dylan Cease (891). Among pitchers with at least 100 starts in that span, Burnes' 2.94 ERA is tied for second-best, behind only Max Fried (2.87), per MLB.com.
Pitching in Chase Field Could Work in His Favor
One of Burnes’ few weaknesses has been susceptibility to the long ball. Over the past three seasons, he’s allowed 22, 22, and 23 home runs, respectively—numbers that slightly inflated his ERA. However, Chase Field ranked 24th in MLB in Park Factor for home runs last season, meaning it suppresses power. This could help Burnes limit home runs, further bolstering his already elite numbers.
Workhorse Mentality
Durability is another major factor in Cy Young voting, and Burnes has been a workhorse. Since 2021, he has logged 757.0 innings, ranking fourth among all pitchers behind Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler. His ability to consistently pitch deep into games adds to his value and makes him a strong candidate for the award.
Betting Value at +1500
Burnes is a proven ace with a Cy Young award already on his résumé. Now, he enters a favorable ballpark situation and remains a strikeout machine. Given his ability to dominate over a full season, his +1500 odds offer strong value in the Cy Young market. If he continues his elite production and benefits from his new home park, he could emerge as a serious contender once again.
At this price, Burnes is one of the best longshot bets for the 2025 NL Cy Young Award.
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