Tuesday's NBA slate features several intriguing betting opportunities, highlighted by a mix of team and player prop bets with strong data backing. The Orlando Magic face a tough matchup against the Toronto Raptors' disruptive defense, making their team total under a prime target. Meanwhile, Trae Young continues to dominate as a facilitator, especially on no rest, making his assist prop a compelling bet in a fast-paced game against the Bucks. Additionally, Jarrett Allen is in a great spot to exploit Chicago’s struggles against opposing centers, particularly in the pick-and-roll. Let’s dive into the best bets for March 4 with detailed analysis and key stats.
Orlando Magic Under 108.5 Team Total Points (-105, BetMGM)
The Orlando Magic Under 108.5 Team Total Points is a strong play given their offensive struggles and Toronto’s defensive strengths. Since the All-Star break, the Raptors have allowed 12.5 field goal attempts in the final four seconds of the shot clock (most) and 10.0 with 4-7 seconds remaining (most), a key factor considering the Magic rank third in shots attempted with four or fewer seconds (10.3) and second in 4-7 second attempts (10.5). This suggests Orlando will be forced into difficult late-clock situations. The Magic have gone under in seven of their last eight games (23-39 O/U on the season, 11-21 at home) and are 28th in pace, just behind Toronto (25th), setting up a slow, grind-it-out contest like this exact matchup on Sunday (104-102 Raptors win). The Magic’s 25th-ranked Offensive Rating and 27th-ranked true shooting percentage since the break highlight their inefficiencies, while the Raptors rank 9th in Defensive Rating since the break and 8th in deflections per game on the year (17.7), disrupting ball movement.
Since the break, Orlando also ranks 29th in assist percentage and 25th in assist-to-turnover ratio, struggling to generate easy buckets. They’ve shot just 44.2% from the field (24th) and 29.7% from three (28th) since the break, while averaging only 84.8 FGA per game, fourth-fewest. Their reliance on free throws (league-high 27.8 FTA per game) means if they don’t get calls, their offense could completely stall. The same thing can happen if either Franz Wagner or Paolo Banchero can’t fill up the points column due to a plethora of injuries. Toronto’s 74.2% defensive rebounding rate (third-best in the NBA since the break) will limit second-chance opportunities as well. Considering Orlando averages just 104.8 PPG at home (second-lowest in the NBA), expect them to struggle to reach 112 against a disciplined Raptors defense. This is absolutely my favorite team-specific bet of the day.
Hawks PG Trae Young Over 11.5 Assists vs. Bucks (+100, BetMGM)
Trae Young Over 11.5 Assists is a strong play given his elite playmaking ability and recent trends. Young leads the NBA in both assists and potential assists and is averaging 12.4 assists per game on no rest this season (clearing this number in seven of 10 tries), with recent performances of 14, 13, 14, and 14 in his last four such games. While he has averaged just 8.0 assists in three matchups vs. Milwaukee, his 20.3 potential assists per game in those contests suggest his teammates simply haven’t capitalized on his setups. In a game with a high 243.5 total, possessions should be plentiful, and with Jalen Johnson out and De’Andre Hunter gone, Young will dominate the ball even more as Atlanta’s clear-cut floor general. Given the up-tempo nature of this matchup, expect Young to facilitate at a high level and clear this number.
Cavaliers C Jarrett Allen Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Bulls (-110, BetMGM)
Jarrett Allen Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-110, BetMGM) is a strong bet given his strong play against Chicago and the Bulls' struggles defending centers. In his last matchup against them, Allen posted 24 points and 10 rebounds, and with Evan Mobley out (rest), his role becomes elevated. The Bulls allow the 3rd-most points and 12th-most rebounds to opposing centers this season, making this a favorable matchup. Additionally, Chicago gives up 10.0 points per game to pick-and-roll recipients, the most in the NBA, while allowing 7.5 attempts per game—also a league-high. Allen, ranking 19th in the NBA with 2.4 pick-and-roll attempts per game, should capitalize on this weakness. With the game in Chicago, there's a good chance the Bulls keep it close enough for Allen to log close to full minutes, increasing his chances of clearing this line.
Magic PF Paolo Banchero Under 5.5 Assists vs. Raptors (-140, BetMGM)
As I noted above, the Magic are in a terrible spot. He’s gone under this in six consecutive games and logged five and two against Toronto this season. In this exact matchup last game, he only had seven potential assists, the same amount he had in the first meeting. He’s gone under this in 18 of 28 (64.3%) of games played this season and I expect it to be an uphill climb in what should be a low-scoring, slow-paced affair tonight.
Clippers C Ivica Zubac Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Suns (-120, BetMGM)
Zubac has absolutely crushed the Suns this season, dropping 25 points and 16 rebounds on January 27, 24 points and 12 rebounds and 18 points and 14 rebounds earlier in the campaign. In 13 games with Norman Powell out this year, he’s averaged 16.5 points and 12.2 rebounds (28.7 points + rebounds) in 31.6 minutes and put up 27 points and 16 boards in his last full game without Powell (against the Lakers on 2/28). I expect him to smash tonight.
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