The NBA season is heating up, and with plenty of movement in the standings, every game matters more than ever. Monday's slate features some intriguing matchups, and we've analyzed the latest trends, injuries, and key stats to find the best betting edges. Whether you're looking for ATS picks, moneyline plays, totals, or player props, we've got you covered. Let’s dive into tonight’s top bets!
ATS Pick: Pistons -9.5 at Jazz (-105, BetMGM)
The Pistons have been one of the best ATS teams to back on the road (19-10-1, 65.5%) this season and have been very hot lately, going 9-2 ATS over their last 11 contests, including 11-4 ATS over their last 15 away games. They’re on a four-game ATS road cover streak and over their last 10 games, they own the best Defensive Rating in the entire NBA, 5th-best Offensive Rating and 2nd-best Net Rating. In that same span, the Jazz rank 26th in Net Rating. The job that J.B. Bickerstaff has gone with this Pistons roster, especially after losing Jaden Ivey, has been simply astounding and he’s my Coach of the Year, for what that’s worth.
ML Pick: Wizards ML at Heat (+290, BetMGM)
With Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart now on this roster, Washington has some veteran talent infused with their young core and have won two of their last three games heading into this contest against the Heat. Miami has gone 3-7 SU in their last ten games overall and just 4-7 SU in their last 11 home games, so I’m comfortable backing the underdog in this spot. It’s also worth noting that the Heat are playing on the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Knicks in overtime last night, so they might be a little more fatigued than usual with no rest.
O/U Pick: Trail Blazers at 76ers Under 228.5 Points (-110, BetMGM)
Portland has gone 2-7 to the O/U with no rest and 13-17-1 to the O/U on the road this season overall. Over the last six games, the Blazers have owned the 2nd-best Defensive Rating and Portland has gone 1-5 to the O/U in the second half of their last six back-to-backs. With Joel Embiid and Jared McCain both out for the season, Paul George playing like garbage and Tyrese Maxey’s finger making him unable to shoot the basketball from the perimeter, it’s tough to have faith in this Sixers squad in this matchup.
Player Prop Pick: 76ers PG Tyrese Maxey Under 3.5 Made Threes vs. Trail Blazers (-165, BetMGM)
Maxey is playing through a finger injury which is clearly bothering him. He’s gone a combined 0-for-12 from three over his last two games and 8-of-36 (22.2%) from deep over his last five. He’s also made zero or one threes in five of his last six contests. On Saturday, per Forbes, 76ers coach Nick Nurse made it clear that he thought Maxey was passing up open looks from three, noting, “I thought [he] turned down a bunch of wide-open threes. That's a big part of what he does, and I think that's probably directly related to it and directly related to last game. But let's see if it can get a little bit better here in the next couple days, then we'll see what's going on." Even if his finger wasn’t bothering him, Maxey has gone 25-26 to the O/U against this 3.5 made threes line this season.
Player Prop Pick: Hawks SF Zaccharie Risacher Over 1.5 Made Threes vs. Grizzlies (-140, BetMGM)
The Grizzlies have allowed the most wide-open (defender 6+ feet away) made threes per game this season (8.7) and have surrendered the 2nd-most wide-open three-point shot attempts (24.6) per contest after the All-Star break, clearly not solving their issue. With the injury to Jalen Johnson and trade of De’Andre Hunter, No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft Risacher should have a clear path to a decent volume of shots once again. Risacher has taken 3.2 wide-open threes per game since the break and has made multiple threes in five of his last six games overall. I don’t love the juice, but I really like the number, especially since teammate Georges Niang is out with an illness.
Player Prop Pick: Mavericks SF Dante Exum Over 2.5 Assists vs. Kings (-140, BetMGM)
The key to Exum going over 2.5 assists is playing 15 or more minutes. In fact, he’s gone over this mark all nine times he’s played over 14 minutes this season. With Anthony Davis, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II and Caleb Martin already ruled out against the Kings tonight, the path to more playing time should be there for Exum, who recorded a season-high six dimes the first and only time he faced Sacramento. On the season, Exum has averaged 5.4 potential assists in just 18.9 minutes per contest, but that includes time with Luka Doncic. In 116 minutes with those aforementioned players off the floor, Exum has put up a team-high 22.06% assist rate with a usage bump, so his outlook looks solid in what should be a tight affair tonight.
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