The Cleveland Cavaliers (48-10) appear set to secure the top seed in the Eastern Conference this season, but sharp bettors don’t seem to think they can go the distance and reach the NBA Finals. BetMGM lists the reigning champion Boston Celtics (42-16) as -140 favorites to return to the championship and pro bettors agree that oddsmakers have the right idea. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
A huge 43.9% of the handle is on Boston winning the Eastern Conference, compared to 19.7% of the total tickets. The Celtics were +170 favorites to win their conference ahead of their season opener against the New York Knicks in October. They commanded the highest ticket percentage (27.1%) and handle percentage (43.6%) on Eastern Conference winner wagers then, but were also considered to be the biggest liability. A few things have changed since then.
The Cavaliers’ surprisingly strong play has helped them take the lead in ticket percentage, a sign of public support. A high 40.2% of Eastern Conference winner wagers are on Cleveland. The Cavs are also viewed as the biggest liability, though. Their odds to win the Eastern Conference are sitting at +225 at BetMGM after opening at +5000.
Boston holds a 2-1 regular-season series lead over Cleveland this year, but the Cavs will get a chance to even the score in their final game in February at TD Garden. The Celtics might have to push through a tougher playoff schedule to reach a second consecutive NBA Finals. Sharps seem to think that outcome is likely.
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