The college basketball season is getting ever so close to entering the month of March, and we all know what that means. The Madness will begin, and hopefully, everyone is loaded up with some future bets that look promising right now as we enter the final stretch. I know if you have been tailing me and reading my stuff, you have a nice 50/1 ticket on St. John’s and a 10/1 ticket on Florida, but there are plenty of other teams out there that could be worth a wager at their current numbers.
After Alabama lost two straight games earlier this month to Auburn and Missouri, I mentioned that it was a good time to bet them to win the national title at 11/1, which you can still find over at BetMGM right now. It seems like this is a good time to buy low on them, and with a huge game against Tennessee due up this weekend, the result is going to make this number climb or fall. The Vols are KenPom’s No. 1 rated team in defensive efficiency, while the Tide are No. 3 in offensive efficiency.
It will be a clash of the titans, and just another chapter in the age old story of debating whether a top defense or top offense is more desirable. One thing is for sure, and that is both teams having a very high seed in the NCAA Tournament coming up, and both ranked very high on KenPom for different reasons.
Alabama not only has the No. 3 ranked offense on KenPom, but they also are ranked highly in another very important stat to consider when the tournament kicks off. The Crimson Tide have a 74.7 adjusted tempo rating, which is No. 1 in the nation. That means that no one plays at a faster pace on the court than Alabama, which means more points are going to be scored.
Right now, the Tide are ranked No. 6 overall on KenPom, with the 43rd ranked defense holding them back. There are five teams ahead of them, but when you look at the latest oddsboard at BetMGM, they are fifth in odds to win the title. Tennessee, who is ranked one spot ahead of them on KenPom at No. 5, is 16/1 to win the title on BetMGM, a spot below the Tide. Clearly, the books have a more unfavorable opinion of the Vols than KenPom.
The only other offenses in the nation that are ranked higher than Alabama are the Auburn Tigers at No. 1, and the Duke Blue Devils at No. 2. Those two teams are ranked 1 and 2 on KenPom, and also have the top two spots at BetMGM, with Auburn at 3/1 and Duke at 3.75/1. The oddsmakers seem to value offense more than defense, but a balanced approach is essential. Both Duke and Auburn rank inside the top-10 in both departments.
I certainly think at 11/1, it is worth sprinkling something on Alabama, buying low on them right now. The offense is easily good enough to win a title, and it will all depend on if they can tighten up a bit on defense, and be able to play at their pace. If they can speed these games up against teams such as Tennessee, they can beat even the best defenses.
Plus, they also have something that I think is essential for any title winner, and that is a star guard. Mark Sears is one of the best in the nation, and is very capable of leading the Tide on a run in March.
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