If you're eyeing the NCAA National Championship odds on BetMGM, Auburn (+425), Duke (+450), Houston (+900), Alabama (+1000), and Florida (+1300) are leading the charge. While those squads are strong contenders, history tells us only four of them currently meet the criteria needed to cut down the nets come tournament time.
College Basketball Report, which keeps tabs on KenPom trends to help spot potential champions, tells us that there are currently only 10 teams that have what it takes to win it all. That’s because, since 2001, 96% of National Champions had a top-21 offense on KenPom before the tournament, and 91% had a top-31 defense. In other words, elite efficiency on both ends of the floor is non-negotiable.
Of course, team rankings are always fluctuating, but right now, here's a list of programs that fit the championship-winning profile based on KenPom data: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Iowa State, Maryland, Utah, Texas Tech, Arizona and Illinois.
It makes sense to see powerhouses like Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida and Iowa State on this list, given their top 10 status in the latest AP Poll. But a few surprising names stand out, too.
Maryland might be flying under the radar, but they rank No. 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. Despite that balance, they're sitting at +8000 to win it all—a longshot that might deserve a second glance.
Arizona is also intriguing, landing at No. 14 offensively and No. 18 defensively. But as Wildcats fans know all too well, they often shine during the regular season only to stumble come March Madness. That inconsistency is baked into their +3500 title odds.
My Favorite Bet: Florida (+1300)
Among the teams fitting the KenPom criteria, only Florida, Duke, and Houston boast top-10 offensive and defensive ratings. The Gators, however, offer the best value at +1300. They're coming off a statement win over No. 1 Auburn and have just eight regular-season games remaining to fine-tune their play. If they keep this momentum going, I love their chances to hoist the trophy this year.
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