It’s always tough figuring out what sports to care about the day after the Super Bowl. Fortunately, the college basketball world can help a little with both the ACC and Big 12 with intriguing matchups on the schedule. We also looked beyond the power conferences with some of our favorite picks for Monday night.
North Carolina (14-10) at Clemson (19-5)
The Tigers are coming off a huge win over Duke on Saturday night, so Clemson needs to be a little worried about a letdown. Keep in mind that they are playing a North Carolina team that probably wouldn’t make the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today, making the Tar Heels desperate for a Quad 1 win. Clemson also suffered a disappointing loss to Georgia Tech last week and is 1-3 against the spread in its last four games as a home favorite. That makes it a little harder to trust the Tigers despite a strong home record. On the other hand, the Tar Heels have lost four of their last six games and gone 0-6 against the spread during that stretch. They’re also 0-6 against the spread in road ACC games this season. That makes it hard to give UNC the benefit of the doubt. Since this is a relatively small spread, the Tigers should be able to avoid a letdown and take care of business, which is what you can expect from a team that’s 19-5 and 11-2 in conference play.
Pick: Clemson -5.5.
Baylor (15-8) at #5 Houston (19-4)
Before the season, this looked like a heavyweight fight, but Baylor has failed to live up to preseason expectations. The Bears are still struggling to gel and make the most of their talent. They’ve also had problems on the road, going 2-4 away from home in Big 12 play, including double-digit losses to Iowa State, Arizona, and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, a one-point home loss to Texas Tech on February 1 is Houston’s only loss since the end of November. The caveat is that the Cougars are just 3-5 against the spread in their last eight games. They are also currently playing without Emanuel Sharp, the team’s second-leading scorer. Even at full strength, Houston isn’t the most explosive offensive team, relying on its defense to pull away from teams. That explains why the Cougars have struggled to cover large spreads at times. That being said, the Cougars are still efficient offensively and they should have a strong defensive effort against a Baylor team that relies heavily on freshmen guards, which is why we’re leaning toward Houston being able to win this game by double digits.
Pick: Houston -9.
Charlotte (9-15) at Florida Atlantic (13-10)
This isn’t the same Florida Atlantic team that went to the Final Four a couple of years ago. However, the Owls have caught fire recently, winning four of their last five games. That stretch has included a pair of wins by 20 points or more over UTSA and South Florida. Those victories bode well for FAU’s chances against Charlotte, who currently sits at the bottom of the American standings. The 49ers have just two wins in their last 12 games, although they’ve managed to go 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games, keeping games competitive, even as a double-digit underdog. Of course, Charlotte hasn’t been able to keep up with the top teams in the American Athletic Conference. With the Owls starting to look like a contender in the AAC, it’s safe to bet on FAU to cover the spread in this game.
Pick: Florida Atlantic -12.5.
Fresno State (5-19) at Nevada (13-10)
For a team enduring a disastrous 5-19 season, Fresno State has been surprisingly good against the spread. To be more specific, the Bulldogs are 9-5 against the spread as a double-digit underdog, which is the case on Monday against Nevada. On the other side, the Wolf Pack has been up and down all season, including multiple losing streaks of three games or more. It’s possible they are turning things around with back-to-back wins, but it’s hard to be too impressed with victories over UNLV and Air Force. Outside of Nick Davidson and Kobe Sanders, who combine for nearly 30 points per game, Nevada lacks consistent scorers. That’s why they’ve struggled to pull away from some of the weaker teams in the Mountain West and it’s why it’s hard to trust them to cover such a big spread, even against a poor Fresno State team.
Pick: Fresno State +14.5.
Related
