Welcome back to another article written by the great Big Will Bets, and boy oh boy, did we dominate the board on Saturday! 4-2 to start off college basketball season, and I look to stay hot with the Wednesday night slate. Because there are games going constantly in the college basketball world, expect at least two articles a week from me giving out my best bets. I will always have my Saturday picks, but I will bounce around between Wednesday and Thursday picks, depending on which day has more games that I like. This week, the Wednesday slate is mighty juicy and the Thursday slate is a bit lackluster. That means we are betting the Wednesday games, and without further ado, let’s get into the picks!
Tom Petty Game: Oregon (16-6) at #24 Michigan (16-5)
Despite both teams having similar records, Oregon has been in a free fall since Big 10 play started. All six of the Ducks' losses have come in Big 10 play, including their last three in a row, which knocked them out of the AP top 25. Michigan, on the other hand, has been ascending, winning three of their last four. Michigan has a top 20 offense and a top 25 defense according to adjusted efficiency, while the Ducks are outside of the top 40 in both categories. Not only is it going to be hard for the Ducks to stop a three game skid when nothing seems to be going right for them, but also they have to do it on the road against the 24th ranked team in the country. I just don’t see it happening for Oregon.
Michigan -7.5.
Defense Over Offense: #15 Missouri (17-4) at #4 Tennessee (18-4)
This game is simple for me. Always pick the under when Tennessee is playing in the game you are gambling on. The Volunteers have the best defense in the country this year and over the last month they have been dominating opposing offenses. They held #1 Auburn to 53 points two weeks ago, and on Saturday they held #5 Florida to 44 points! Two great offenses were completely stymied by the Volunteers' tenacious defense. Tennessee being one of the slowest pace of play teams in the country only helps their defense because the players don’t need to run in transition as much as faster pace of play teams do. They never get tired! Missouri has been on a hot streak, and the Tigers do have a top 10 offense. But, you don’t get rich betting Tennessee overs.
Under 134.5.
I Just Hope Both Teams Have Fun: #2 Duke (19-2) at Syracuse (10-12)
I like watching basketball games where both teams score a lot of points. Ironically, I wrote that sentence after my last pick. While I don’t see this game being particularly close, I do think that both teams can put up some points. Duke has the fifth best offense in the country right now and always seems to come away with points on their offensive possessions. Syracuse, on the other hand, doesn’t do that. In fact, their offense is closer to average than good. But, they do one thing that helps our chances for the over. They play fast. When a team plays fast, a couple of things happen that are good for overs. First, they are more likely to commit turnovers that lead to fast break points. Second, playing fast leads to more possessions, and more possessions means more chances to score. That’s good for us. We need Syracuse to play fast and hang around for just long enough in this game to make it interesting. If they do that, and I think they can, we should get our over.
Over 143.5.
Butt Kicking: Tulsa (9-13) at #17 Memphis (18-4)
If this game is close, Memphis should be embarrassed. Tulsa is bad. Like, really bad. Tulsa does not rank inside of the top 230 teams in the country in either offensive or defensive efficiency! Well Mr. Bets, you might ask, has Tulsa played a difficult schedule? No! Their strength of schedule is horrible! While the Tigers are not a perfect team, and offensive efficiency is outside of the top 60, they have played one of the more difficult schedules in the country and done quite well. Look for Memphis to smack a very bad Tulsa team.
Memphis -18.5.
Sorry Tony: #23 Illinois (15-7) at Rutgers (11-11)
What a great game to end the Wednesday night basketball slate! Both teams are in the top 100 in adjusted possessions per game. That means we will get to watch a back and forth game with two of the better offenses in the country that like to steal as many possessions as possible. But, the reason I’m picking Illinois to cover this game is because of their defense. As good as Illinois’ offense is (21st in the country), their defense is even better (10th in the country). Rutgers is a good team, but they will come up short against this Illinois team because Illinois’ defense will wear them out. Don’t overthink this game, or get bullied by the ghost of Tony Soprano to go with the team in New Jersey. Trust the better defensive team to come out on top.
Illinois -8.5.
Conclusion
I am beyond excited for this Wednesday's slate! Great games all night as we get ready for the home stretch of the regular season of college basketball. Hopefully, we can stay red hot!
Related
