With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, the focus has shifted to the upcoming NFL Draft. Unlike last year, when Caleb Williams was the clear-cut No. 1 pick for the Bears, this year’s top selection is still up for debate.
The odds board has been in flux over the past week as new reports and mock drafts emerge. Shedeur Sanders, the opening favorite at +300, has drifted to +500 and now sits behind three other players.
One of the biggest risers is Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter. His odds have taken a dramatic swing at BetMGM, moving from +2200 at open to +180, now the second-shortest on the board. Miami QB Cam Ward is the current favorite to go first overall at -145, a significant shift from his opening line of +425.
The Titans hold the No. 1 pick, and if they choose the best overall player rather than addressing a positional need, Carter could be their guy. The Nittany Lions’ defensive star was a force last season, leading the team with 12.0 sacks, 68 total tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss, and 43 quarterback hurries.
While Tennessee needs a quarterback, it’s more than just one player away from contention. Titans president of football operations Chad Brinker said last month that they wouldn’t pass on a generational talent at No. 1. Whether they see Carter as that type of prospect remains to be seen, but history suggests taking the top pass rusher early pays off.
According to The Tennessean, in the 10 drafts from 2014 to 2023, the first pass rusher selected has combined for 11 All-Pro selections, 28 Pro Bowl appearances, and 24 seasons with 10+ sacks.
As for betting trends (BetMGM), Carter ranks fourth in ticket percentage (9.6%) and handle percentage (6.8%) to go No. 1 overall. The highest ticket percentage belongs to Travis Hunter (29.4%), followed by Ward (18.1%) and Sanders (18.0%). Ward also leads in handle percentage at 45.8%, with Hunter (21.9%) and Sanders (17.6%) trailing behind.
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