Jalen Hurts To Record More Passing Yards Than Patrick Mahomes (+155)
The overwhelming majority of the betting public thinks Jalen Hurts is nothing more than a game manager that they can’t trust in the big game, and thus are fading him here in favor of hammering RB Saquon Barkley to have a big day. In reality, I think Hurts has a better matchup here than people realize, and he certainly has a better matchup than Patrick Mahomes does on the other side.
While Mahomes is undoubtedly a better quarterback than Hurts, defenses matter too, and matchups can make all the difference. Kansas City wasn’t particularly successful this season against the pass, ranking 18th in the league against it, while also ranking 12th in yards per play as a defense. The Philadelphia offense is loaded with talent across the board, from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, to tight end Dallas Goedert. The Eagles also own one of the league’s most elite offensive lines. The Chiefs ranked 8th against the run this season, and you had best believe they will be keyed in on Barkley with how he has performed with home run dashes down the field.
Philly’s defense ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the pass this season, and also ranked No. 1 in yards per play allowed overall. Mahomes is the best QB in the league, but his weapons on offense are limited. An aging Travis Kelce and rookie Xavier Worthy are the biggest threats in the passing attack against that defense. I don’t think it is crazy to think that Hurts is set up for far more success than Mahomes is through the air, and at +155 odds for him to have more passing yards, I think that is worth a bet for Super Bowl LIX.
DeVonta Smith To Record More Receiving Yards Than Xavier Worthy (+100)
Yesterday, I wrote about how successful Smith has been in the past against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He's put up at least 100 yards in all three games he has played against Kansas City, with one lone 99-yard performance. He’s owned them in his career, and with all the attention going to Barkley and Brown, Smith could sneak up and get another triple-digit performance against a Chiefs defense that we know already hasn’t been great at defending the pass this season.
Worthy has been pretty good as a rookie, but has really stood out in the playoffs to this point. He’s almost had to, as the Chiefs have no one else at the receiver position that you can really count on to be reliable. Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster aren’t guys that I would be excited about in the year 2025. Again, the Eagles have been nails at defending the pass this season, and they know Worthy has been on a tear. Plus, he is a rookie, and that still has to play some part here. We don’t know how he will perform in the biggest game of his life, and they are asking us to lay -150 over Smith?
Smith has been here before and been successful on the biggest stage, so I am not worried about his nerves. At +100, I think there is some good value on Smith to put up a better performance than Worthy.
Related
