After Bay Area dry spell ends, prospects for more wet weather look bleak

Not much more precipitation is on the horizon for the Bay Area after the region ended its 44-day dry spell earlier this week, according to the National Weather Service.

Four-hundredths of an inch of rain fell in San Francisco late Monday, while as much as two-tenths of an inch fell in other parts of the region. Scattered showers continued across the Bay Area on Tuesday afternoon, with hail even falling in the North Bay and East Bay as the region prepared for record-low temperatures over the next few days.

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"That's the second-longest mid-winter dry spell that we've actually had there since records began in San Francisco in 1849," NWS Meteorologist Drew Peterson said of the 44 days without precipitation during an interview with KCBS Radio’s Dan Mitchinson on Tuesday morning. "It's not common to see that occur, but given that it's been 44 days since we've had any precipitation, we will take that four-hundredths."

But Peterson said the Bay Area doesn't "have any big rain producers on the horizon" when February turns to March. A "weak glancing blow" could potentially reach the North Bay early next week, he said, but not much else precipitation is in the forecast.

Mid-winter dry spells often give way to upticks in precipitation, according to Peterson, assuming a pattern change comes along with it. It’s unlikely that any such storm occurs after March, and the Bay Area could fall well below average in its water year by the time spring rolls around.

"The chances of something like that coming in April are low, so what we really need to see is, maybe, another atmospheric river move through the area in March," Peterson explained. "And that's what we'd really like to see. Failing that, we'd like to just see three or four moderate strength systems move through the area in March."

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