For the first time since the omicron variant’s initial surge, San Francisco's seven-day average COVID-19 test positivity has hit 5%.
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The city crossed that threshold for the week ending April 14, according to the San Francisco Department of Public Health, when complete data was most recently available. That percentage is almost certain to rise in the coming days with BA.2 now the dominant strain worldwide, as preliminary data shows the single-day test positivity surpassing 5% on April 15 (5.2%), April 16 (8.7%) and April 17 (7.5%).
San Francisco last surpassed 5% test positivity on Feb. 15, as omicron cases declined. Previously, the city exceeded 5% last Dec. 18, as the omicron variant began to gain a foothold in the Bay Area.
Only Santa Cruz averaged more cases per 100,000 residents (19) than San Francisco (18) among California counties over the week ending April 14, according to the most recent state data. It's possible this is an undercount, as San Francisco averaged 3,981 tests per day during that week.
The last time San Francisco averaged fewer than 4,000 tests per day over a week was last Nov. 27 (3,521), a day after the World Health Organization deemed the omicron variant one of concern and nearly two months before the Biden administration first sent at-home COVID-19 tests. Health experts have shared concerns about the lack of reporting from people who use at-home tests, leading to possible undercounts of case rates and test positivity.
Cases are rising at a time when San Francisco, like the rest of the Bay Area and much of the state, is no longer requiring certain COVID-19 mitigation measures. Since February, San Francisco has lifted its public indoor mask mandate and proof of vaccination requirements for indoor businesses and large indoor events.
Just this week, BART and the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency announced that masks would be strongly recommended, rather than required, in vehicles after a Florida judge struck down a national mask mandate for public transportation. Officials have pointed to San Francisco's high vaccination rates – 84% of all residents have completed their initial vaccination series – as a reason to loosen certain requirements.
Speaking generally on KCBS Radio's "Ask An Expert" on Friday morning, University of Texas Assistant Professor Katelyn Jetelina told Holly Quan and Jason Brooks that "if trends are increasing in your area, that’s when you start putting on a mask."
"We just don't have, one, a good measure of transmission, period, in communities," Jetelina said, pointing to epidemiological estimates that as many as 90% of coronavirus cases are going unreported nationally. "And then two, it’s difficult to know when and where to mask without great guidance on a local, or even a national level."
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