California's positive COVID-19 test rate climbed to 4.1% on Monday, with many of the Bay Area’s counties right around that mark.
Only Marin (2.7%), San Mateo (2.1%) and Santa Clara counties (1.9%) had a positivity rate below 3% over the last seven days, according to state data released Monday, as all but one county is now recommending all residents wear masks indoors regardless of their vaccination status.
Considering Los Angeles County (3.7%) has a mask mandate, could the Bay Area soon issue stricter enforcement?
Not necessarily, according to UCSF infectious disease expert Dr. Peter Chin-Hong.
"I think it's different strokes for different folks, and it all boils down to how much your region is vaccinated at the end of the day," Dr. Chin-Hong said Monday on KCBS Radio's "The State of California."
"Right now it looks very similar (in LA and the Bay Area), but at the end of the day, if hospitalization resources are used differentially in different parts of the state, I would see and think that mask recommendation would remain in a highly vaccinated area, whereas it will remain a mandate in an area that’s more poorly vaccinated."
Just shy of 68% of LA County residents aged 12 or older had been fully vaccinated through July 11, according to county data. Solano County (57%) is the only one in the Bay Area below that threshold.
Dr. Chin-Hong said he expects the number of breakthrough infections for vaccinated people to rise as the delta variant continues to spread, but data from the U.K. indicates such infections are far more likely to look like a cold than result in hospitalization or death.
In LA County, Dr. Chin-Hong said 99.8% of deaths were among unvaccinated people, as were 98% of hospitalizations. As a result, he said it's still too early to say whether or not the Bay Area is "turning back the clock" to earlier stages of the pandemic that warranted stricter enforcement amid the latest surge.
"The end of the story may look very different in, say, San Bernardino County vs. Marin County, or Santa Clara County," Dr. Chin-Hong explained. "And it will be interesting to see how the story's told, but again, time will tell and right now, it's looking very similar. But we may have different endings."
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