California reported another 33,170 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday as the virus continues to explode across the state.
Hospitalizations and ICU admissions continue to increase as well, by 38% and 37% respectively, over the last two weeks. Nearly 20,000 Californians are now hospitalized with COVID-19 and 4,228 people with the virus are in the ICU.
One small glimmer of good news shared in Gov. Newsom’s Monday news conference is that admissions are starting to plateau across most of the state, a sign that stay-at-home orders may be working. But so far there is no change in the hardest hit region of Southern California.
The state’s regional stay-at-home order has now been in effect in the Southern California and San Joaquin regions for three weeks, the initial length of the order. But with both regions still at 0% ICU capacity and resorting to surge beds and field hospitals to deal with the rising demand, those orders are likely to stay in effect for some time.
Orders will be lifted after at least three weeks have passed and state projections show a region’s ICU capacity will be at or above 15% four weeks out.
The state’s HHS Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly is expected to present current projections for Southern California and San Joaquin on Tuesday and Sacramento’s projections will be released after the New Year. Sacramento is the only region to see ICU capacity bounce back above 15% since stay-at-home orders went into effect.
The Bay Area’s ICU capacity is at 9.5% and updates on when the orders could be lifted will not come until next week. Even if the state gives the Bay Area permission to reopen, it is possible that some local officials will voluntarily keep the orders in place.
Gov. Newsom says the state is in a critical period, as we will likely see a “surge within a surge” in two weeks because of the impact of holiday travel and gatherings.
But the vaccine continues to offer a bright spot.
Vaccinations have begun in California in long-term care facilities as part of Phase 1A of the state’s distribution plan and the Vaccine Advisory Committee is expected to sign off on Phase 1B this week, which has two tiers.
Tier 1: People 75 and older; workers in education, childcare, emergency services, food and agriculture
Tier 2: People 65 and older with underlying health conditions and/or disabilities; workers in transportation and logistics: industrial, residential and commercial sectors; critical manufacturing, incarcerated individuals & the homeless/unhoused
Phase 1C is still in the works but Gov. Newsom revealed Monday that it will likely cover people 16-64 with underlying medical conditions and/or disabilities and workers in water & waste management; defense; energy; chemical & hazardous; communication & IT; financial services & government operations/community service.
Newsom expects that the state will have received 1.76 vaccine doses by the end of the year. That is lower than the initial estimate of 2.1 million doses, largely because the federal government cut California's (and several other states) vaccine allocation by 40% last week.