The retired Army lieutenant colonel who was a key witness against former President Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial says he believes Russia's invasion of Ukraine will only end through negotiation, and the U.S. and its NATO allies must be willing to offer more support to Ukraine in order to prevent conditions from further deteriorating.
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"Frankly, from a military perspective, they don't have the forces to actually seize these cities," Alexander Vindman, a former National Security Council aide who has served in Russia and Ukraine, said of the Russian army in an interview with KCBS Radio. "They're too big."
Vindman left the National Security Council two years ago, months after testifying he overheard Trump press Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call to investigate then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son in exchange for military aid to defend itself against Russian aggression. He retired from the Army in July 2020, suing a number of Trump allies – including Donald Trump Jr. – for running a "concerted campaign of unlawful intimidation and retaliation" over Vindman's decision to testify.
Turkey is set to host another round of talks between Ukraine and Russia on Thursday. So far, talks have resulted in limited progress setting up humanitarian corridors for fleeing refugees, let alone an end to the conflict. Zelenskyy has said he has had no direct contact with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Russia continued shelling Ukrainian cities on Wednesday as the former’s invasion neared the end of its second week. Ukrainian officials said at least 17 people were wounded in a Russian airstrike on a maternity ward.
Although Russian forces have taken a significant blow since the invasion began, Vindman said frustrations will grow over sanctions and support from the West. That could lead to Russia lashing out like it did on Wednesday and, potentially, a much longer conflict.
"As they get frustrated, they're going to resort to these kinds of tactics, and just rain artillery and ballistic missiles on Ukrainian cities with a lot more casualties," Vindman said.
Vindman called for the U.S. to make "courageous but risk-informed decisions," like providing Ukraine with planes or unmanned aircraft to combat Russian ballistic missiles.
The Pentagon on Wednesday said it would not provide MiG fighter jets to Ukraine, even through another country, and the U.S. and NATO have so far resisted calls to enforce a no-fly zone over the country. American officials fear either move could escalate the conflict and, thus, heighten the risk of direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia.
Vindman said the U.S. and NATO should be aggressive in a way that is "mindful" of how "this has played out in the past with proxy wars."
"What's likely to occur, unfortunately, is a bloody escalation," he said. "We think it's kind of looking bad now? It's not."
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