There's been a lot of buzz about rumors for an expansion team to be part of an NFL-STL settlement in recent weeks, in part because Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk has mentioned it being discussed more than once, but does that idea actually make sense for both sides of this fight? If it only makes sense for one side then it's not going to happen but if there's mutual interest in this being part of some kind of settlement then maybe there's something there.
So let's get into the key questions surrounding this topic...
Would the people of St Louis want another team after having two teams snatched away in the past?
There's no doubt in my mind that a lot of people in St Louis are done with the NFL. One hundred percent done. What percentage of football fans does that apply to though? I guarantee there would be a large number of people that would jump on board but I can't even begin to guess at what percentage of people who backed the Rams would back a new team.
Here's one thing I do know: people love football.
I hate the NFL and what it stands for. They say "Football is Family" in league advertising ... yeah, maybe if the family is the Sopranos. From the commissioner's office to the owners boxes there are a lot of bad people who only care about making more money, regardless of the damage done to cities, players, etc.
But I still love watching football. It's a fascinating game that is intensely physical but also intricately detailed. It's fun and I still watch so I'm sure I'd be in the group of people that would watch on TV, go to games, etc.
I'd say that the fan base would initially be smaller than the NFL would like but that it would grow over time with younger generations not harboring the same animosity toward the league following of the passage of time.
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How would it all work?
Well, this is where things get tricky. The NFL isn't going to give a team to the city, the county or Regional Convention and Sports Complex. They're not going to do what they did decades ago with Green Bay. They're going to want an owner (or ownership group) to buy the team and pay an expansion fee. It wouldn't make sense for the league to give the team to an owner, right? Why should some rich dude(s) get a free team when it's the people of STL that were wronged? Obviously that wouldn't happen. So there would need to be an owner.
So if the league is getting an owner to buy in does the city just get a new stadium out of the deal? That's not nothing, plus it would come with all the revenues it would generate in future years, but a new stadium is going to cost $2 billion or more at this point and that's not including upkeep, etc. But this would have to be the setup, right?
If the league and Kroenke are willing to pony up $2 billion then why not just offer that as a cash settlement? Expansion is complicated.
You can't just add one team, you probably need to add two. So that means instead of dividing all revenues by 32 over the coming decades you have to divide by 34. Everyone's piece of the pie just got smaller (even though the pie is going to be growing) and that includes owners that are not named in the lawsuit, which is a much larger number than those that are named.
It would probably be easier to move the Chargers to STL from LA because they're having all kinds of problems getting attention and drawing fans anyway. The problem with that is that Dean Spanos would have to be on board with moving his team. Maybe a new stadium that costs him nothing would work, I don't know, but that seems like a less complicated scenario than an expansion team.
Also ... we'd need to get in writing that this franchise cannot be moved. Ever. At least that's where I'd start with the demand. Haha. Maybe it's 100 year or 50 years or whatever but this needs to be guaranteed in writing.
Can St Louis support four (MLB, NHL, MLS, NFL) professional sports franchises?
Yes. Absolutely. No doubt about it. Other cities of similar size do the same thing already and so long as the franchises make an effort to be a part of the community and put out a quality product they would have strong support. We're talking about 8-9 home games a year for an NFL team. It's not that big of a commitment for people to go to games if the team is competitive and cares about being in STL.
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Would it be better to just get the money?
Man, that's a loaded question. It depends on what that money is going to be used for. I'd want to see a detailed breakdown of EXACTLY where the money is going before I'd sign off on this as opposed to getting a new team. With a new team we know there will be jobs, we know there will be tax revenue from tickets sold and from people coming to games, etc. If STL wins, say, $2 billion how much of that actually helps the people of the St Louis region?
That's definitely a question that needs answering.
Is an NFL coming to St. Louis as result of this lawsuit really going to happen?
I don't think so. Keep in mind that I'd be in the group that wants a new team so I hope I'm wrong but it just seems like a cash settlement would make more sense for the NFL and Kroenke, especially to the 25-26 owners who are not named in the lawsuit.
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