(KMOX) - The fact that we're having discussions about Adam Wainwright and the Cy Young Award, in and of itself, tells you all you need to know about the kind of season the Cardinals ace is having.
He has been the only stabilizing force in the Cardinals' rotation from Opening Day until now and without his contributions the team's position in the race for the 2nd Wild Card spot (4 games up on the Reds as I type this) wouldn't even be possible. In a season that has seen the rotation in scramble mode pretty much from Day One, Wainwright has been a rock. His spot in the rotation has been what held it all together, keeping everything from collapsing under the weight of injuries and performance issues.
What does that mean for the Cy Young race, though?
In previous generations the argument for Wainwright would be a much simpler one than it is in 2021. The "old school" measures of a pitcher definitely favor him:
- 2nd in the NL, and in all of MLB, in wins (16)
- 6th in the NL, and 7th in all of MLB, in ERA (2.89)
- 2nd in the NL, and in all of MLB, in Innings Pitched (196 1/3)
20 years ago those might have been enough to win a Cy Young, especially when you combine them with the narrative I outlined above with Wainwright leading his team through the darkness and into the bright light of contention. The "carried his team" messaging held some weight in those days.
But it's not 20 years ago...
In 2021 the Cy Young race will be more about a pitcher's individual dominance, measured by strikeouts, expected numbers (via batted ball data), etc.
Here is where Wainwright ranks in some more advanced categories among qualified starters:
- 9th in the NL in pitcher fWAR (4.0)
- 14th in Expected ERA (3.82)
- 12th in Fielding Independent ERA (3.47)
- 17th in Expected Fielding Independent ERA (3.79)
- 18th in K/9 (7.75)
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For those unaware, "expected" stats are calculated using batted ball data (exit velocity, launch angle, etc...) and not just the result of the play, which could be based on luck (a line drive right at a defender) or on the quality of the defense behind the pitcher rather than being about what the pitcher controlled himself.
In Las Vegas the current Cy Young favorites are:
1. Max Scherzer (-210)
2. Corbin Burnes (+200)
3. Walker Buehler (+650)
4. Zack Wheeler (+2750)
5. Brandon Woodruff (+4750)
Also ... Wainwright is 6th (+8000)
Yeah, so it's definitely Scherzer's to lose at this point if Vegas has this thing pinned down (and they're pretty good at this stuff). Also, notice the HUGE gap between 3rd and 4th on the list. There's a pretty big gap between Burnes and Buehler for 2nd and 3rd place but nothing like the jump from Buehler to Wheeler. Depending on how the voters break things down, this is a 2-horse race between Scherzer and Burnes, with Schzerer holding a solid lead coming down the stretch.
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Finally, for a point of reference, let's take a look at where Scherzer and Burnes rank in all those categories listed above for Wainwright:
Scherzer
- 3rd in the NL in wins (15)
- 1st in the NL in ERA (2.08)
- 21st in the NL in Innings Pitched (169)
- 3rd in the NL in pitcher fWAR (5.5)
- 2nd in Expected ERA (2.79)
- 3rd in Fielding Independent ERA (2.82)
- 4th in Expected Fielding Independent ERA (3.18)
- 2nd in K/9 (12.04)
Burnes
- 32nd in the NL in wins (10)
- 2nd in the NL in ERA (2.34)
- 35th in the NL in Innings Pitched (158)
- 1st in the NL in pitcher fWAR (7.5)
- 1st in Expected ERA (1.99)
- 1st in Fielding Independent ERA (1.58)
- 1st in Expected Fielding Independent ERA (2.31)
- 1st in K/9 (12.59)
You could debate whether or not Scherzer should be the favorite but that seems like a logical conclusion because even though Burnes is ahead in the more advanced measurements it's very close in those categories and Scherzer has the advantage over Burnes in a couple of the more traditional categories, plus he has some "narrative help" because he's 7-0 in 9 starts since joining the Dodgers and they've won all 9 of his starts ... the strong finish definitely won't hurt him.
Either way, we're headed toward Scherzer and Burnes being 1-2 one way or another with Buehler, Wheeler, Woodruff and, yes, Adam Wainwright all getting votes and slotting in behind them.
While Wainwright may not have a chance to win the Cy Young Award you could, if you wanted to, make an argument for "Most Valuable Pitcher" based on what he's meant to his team. I don't think it would be too difficult to make the case for Waino given how the 2021 season has played out for the Cardinals.
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