Researchers at Tarleton State University have spent the past three months looking at similarities among mass shootings. The team at Tarleton's Institute for Predictive Analytics in Criminal Justice studied 178 mass shootings from 1966 through 2021.
"We found some really, really interesting patterns that relate to the actual individual who engages in these mass shootings as well as the location they choose," said the institute's founder, Alex del Carmen.
The study showed 98% of mass shooters have been male and are usually younger than 30 years old. Shootings at schools and businesses are "almost always" carried out by someone with a personal connection to the location.
The study found 65% of shooters have a criminal history; 69% show signs of mental illness. But Del Carmen says mental illness alone is not a predictor of a mass shooting.
"Most people who suffer from a mental illness are people who will never commit a violent crime, but we do have some who, sadly, engage in violence," he said. "It's just very hard to determine those who are going to commit violence versus those who are not."
The report found most workplace shooters and all but one school shooter talked about their plans with someone in advance.
Del Carmen said the results can help police look for signs someone is considering a mass shooting ahead of time. He suggests businesses who discipline employees should also watch their social media posts; schools should consider dedicating staff to working with police to watch what students are saying online; parents should also watch their kids' social media activity.
All should watch for changes in a person's behavior.
"Keep an eye out," del Carmen said. "A lot of times, we parents are clueless about what our kids are doing on a social platform and what they're actually telling their friends. Parents are sometimes shocked to find out their kids went out there and engaged in violence. Sometimes, they're the last ones to find out."
The full report from Tarleton State University's Institute for Predictive Analytics in Criminal Justice:
· Insider relationship. School and workplace shootings are almost always committed by individuals with an inside relationship to the location.
· Shooter demographics. Mass shooters are almost universally male (98%) and typically younger than 30. In the past 20 years shooters have become more racially diverse. Shooters have a high likelihood of being single, divorced or separated.
· Mental illness history. Approximately 69% of mass shooters exhibit signs of mental illness.
· Criminal history. Approximately 65% of mass shooters have a criminal history.
· Recent employment change. Prior to the incident, 55% of shooters have experienced a recent employment change. When controlling for only workplace shootings, the percentage rose significantly to 78%.
· Forewarning. Most workplace shooters and all but one school shooter communicated their intentions in advance.
· Outcome of shooter. Sixty percent of mass shooters die at the scene (suicide or police shooting). Most of shooter deaths (65%) are suicides.
· Weapons. Slightly more than 50% of the weapons used in mass shootings are handguns, followed by assault rifles (24%), rifles (13%) and shotguns (12%).
· Weapon acquisition. Mass shooters obtain their weapons legally 66% of the time.
· Weapons acquired 30 days prior. Approximately 31% of mass shootings involve weapons acquired within 30 days before the shooting.
· State demographic. States with higher population density (California, Texas, Florida) appear highly correlated to number of mass shootings. States with relatively low population density (Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, Vermont, New Mexico and Maine) have had no mass shootings. Also, states that are more demographically homogenous (West Virginia, Vermont, Maine) have fewer mass shootings; heterogenous states experience more.
· Aggrieved entitlement. People with an identity of privilege (white, male) who perceive that they are not reaping the benefits of that privilege may experience what sociologists call aggrieved entitlement. They may believe they are entitled to something their identity privilege has not secured for them, so they feel empowered by that privilege to use revenge. In this study, this is most noticeable among males (gender privilege).
· Location type. The workplace is the most common location for a mass shooting (31%), followed by commerce areas (18%), restaurants/bars (13%) and schools (6.3%).
Recommendations
· Employers. Should be fluent with their personnel and emerging employment issues and remain vigilant following employee discipline. Employers should develop a monitoring system so they can intervene prior to a full mental health crisis.
· Schools and universities. Should take proactive steps with students who indicate potentially threatening language or suicidal thoughts. All threatening communication should be taken seriously. A culture of bullying should not be tolerated.
· Home and family. Families with firearms in the home should provide for safe storage, as this can lead to both suicide prevention and a possible reduction in mass shootings. Those in the home may be the first to recognize behavioral changes and signs of an emerging crisis, and they should take steps to mitigate.
· Legislatures. Should carefully consider the current age restrictions to buy weapons, particularly assault rifles. And they should consider developing a mechanism regarding the legal purchase of weapons being reportable to local law enforcement.
More information is available at https://web.tarleton.edu/ipac/ .
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