A new report from the First Street Foundation says for every super hot day we endured this summer, expect several more in years to come. They say that within the next 30 years, the heat index in most of the state's 254 counties will hit at least 125 degrees. The analysis looked at the seven hottest days each area sees in a given year.
State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon at Texas A&M University says global warming is to blame. Temperatures are going up everywhere and the humidity as well. "We get our humidity partly from the Gulf of Mexico, and Gulf of Mexico temperatures are rising as well. So the high temperatures and high humidity go together."
The analysis looked at the seven hottest days each area sees in a given year. The county that fared the worst in our state is Aransas, by the Gulf of Mexico. It says "While all areas of Texas will continue to see increases over the next 30 years, Aransas County will face the largest increase in their Local Hot Days between now and 2053. This year, Aransas County can expect a week at or above 107.6 which will grow to 28 days, 30 years from now."
It says "Dangerously Hot Days" are defined as having a "feels like" temperature of 100 or more. " Starr County is expected to see 109 Dangerous Days this year growing to 131 a year by 2053, an increase of 22 days. The impact of these Dangerous Days are heightened when they are experienced in succession, known as Consecutive Dangerous Days. This year, in Starr, the expected length of Consecutive Dangerous Days is 34 days. In 30 years, Starr County can expect to have as many as 49 Consecutive Dangerous Days."
Nielson-Gammon says these temperatures will keep rising. "Once you hit these thresholds, like a 125 degree heat index, you're going to break it fairly frequently because a lot of days are going to be similar during the summertime.
He adds some of the hottest temperatures we've ever had in Texas were in the 1930's. But not everyone believes climate change is real. "Sometimes people point to that and say, see? The worst temperatures are not going up. But they are higher now if you factor in humidity, and furthermore have been on an upward trajectory for the past 40 to 50 years and will soon be surpassing 1930's temperatures but with more humidity at the same time."
Part of our problem is the vast majority of Texas is at or just above sea level. Rising air tends to cool. "The Hill Country ends up being fairly cool because the air has risen a couple of thousand feet from the coast. But then it has plenty of time to heat up again by the time it gets to Wichita Falls. That's another hot part of the state."
The Gulf and the latitude of Texas play a bigger role. Winds coming off the water are always going to be humid. "The amount of heat we get depends partly on how much rain we've had. This year was an especially hot summer and it was also a major drought year. Usually if temperatures are higher in one particular year, humidity tends to be lower because of the trade off we get with evaporation from rain. But over the long term, both those numbers are increasing."
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