PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — Buckle up: Pennsylvania is expected to be a political roller coaster ride this year.
Nothing matches the intensity of a presidential race, but Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, said it is incredibly rare to have two statewide races for open seats — which in 2022 will be governor and U.S. Senate.
And, with the balance of power in the U.S. Senate currently 50-50, he said there’s going to be a lot of attention on the commonwealth.
“The United States Senate is tightly balanced,” said Borick, who also runs the college’s Institute of Public Opinion. “This is one of the seats that Democrats think they can pick up.”
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In traditional American politics, the party that holds the White House is generally at a disadvantage in the midterms, so Republicans will already have the wind at their backs.
“Voters that are dissatisfied might be in a punitive mood unless Democrats can show success in moving us to a next stage in the pandemic,” said Borick.
Outside of the Democratic gubernatorial primary, the primaries are crowded. Borick said it will be interesting in the spring to see which candidates get traction.
“Short of candidates really taking charge and running away and getting majority, a lot of these races may be decided by a plurality of voters, maybe 30%, 35%,” he estimated.
Economic issues are always a factor too; right now, the obvious concern is inflation.
Combine all that with the high price of state media markets and the sheer number of candidates lining up for the primaries, Borick said he’d be “surprised if we don’t see a number of records fall in ’22, in terms of campaign finance in the state.”
“When you take the everything in sum — the Senate race, the governor’s race, the congressional races — Pennsylvania is going to be a hot spot in American politics in 2022.”