PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — The majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives is still up in the air after Tuesday’s midterm election. As of late Friday afternoon, Democrats held 101 seats, while Republicans had 100.
The races for the final two seats, both in the Philadelphia suburbs, are too close to call. The winners won’t be known until military and overseas ballots are counted, and those are not due until Tuesday, Nov. 14.
In Montgomery County, Rep. Todd Stephens, R-North Wales, held a 14-vote lead over Democrat Melissa Cerrato Friday afternoon. In Bucks County, Democrat Mark Moffa had a two-vote lead over Republican Joseph Hogan.
Regardless of who is in the majority, the state House will look much different. Last session, Republicans held a 113-90 majority. Now, it will be a one- or two-seat difference.
Related
“It's not unprecedented in Pennsylvania. But it’s been a long time,” said political strategist Aaron Cohen.
“You'd have to go back to the 90s, when they were constantly going back and forth by a vote or two on the majority.”
He added that the narrowly divided House isn’t a total surprise. The new legislative districts, redrawn every 10 years, were intentionally designed to keep the state House more balanced.
“I think where a lot of people's minds from a Republican majority staying in power in the state House came from the environment,” said Cohen. The state of the economy and President Joe Biden’s sagging popularity led to predictions of a better performance for Republican candidates.
Related
But Cohen said reproductive rights proved to be a bigger motivator for voters than expected.
Cohen added that as more moderate Republicans in the southeastern part of the state lost their seats, the Republican caucus in the state House shifted farther right.
“When you’re left to your own devices in the majority for so long, you take it for granted,” he said. “I think that's where the Republican Party has been in Pennsylvania.”
He also said candidates matter, and Doug Mastriano’s failure to reach out to moderate voters had an effect all the way down the ballot.
Related
“It is a very difficult scenario, to maintain a brand name as a state legislative candidate when the gubernatorial candidate is clearly driving the party and the office to be stridently partisan,” said Cohen.
He says regardless of which party ends up with the majority, the lead is going to be slim.
“The largest percentage chance of a majority at this point is two votes. So now you've empowered basically every legislator,” Cohen said. “If they're Machiavellian, (they) will become incredibly powerful.”