PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — There are fewer than two months to go before the midterm election, where voters in Pennsylvania will pick a new governor and a new U.S. senator. It comes after a long period where Republicans chipped away at the voter registration advantage Democrats hold in the state, but recent events may have altered that trend.
Four years ago, Democrats had a 1.2 million registration lead on the GOP. Republicans have cut that advantage to about 540,000.
“When you're looking at voter registration numbers, it depends on the timeframe you're looking at,” said Director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and political science professor Chris Borick.
“Maybe if it's over a two-year period, one party might gain. If it's over a six-month period or a three-month period, we might see a different trend.”
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Borick said such a trend exists this year.
“Since the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, we see a bit of a reversal of fortune with Democrats being able to do better than Republicans,” he added, specifying women and younger voters as the greatest post-Dobbs registration trend.
“It's hard to always isolate one kind of thing that may have changed or shifted patterns like we might be seeing in Pennsylvania, but I think it's fairly clear that the Dobbs decision in June had an effect on mobilizing voter registration.”
Millersville University veteran political analyst Terry Madonna agrees.
“It looks like more women are motivated to register, more women than men. And that's again probably a direct result of the Supreme Court abortion decision,” said Madonna.
45% of registered voters in Pennsylvania are Democrats, 40% are Republicans, and 15% are another party, independent or unaffiliated.
But Borick said that registration doesn't tell the whole story. Even with a big lead, Democrats have lost several statewide races in recent years.
With two months until the election, both Borick and Madonna say it’s too soon to draw any conclusions, but with an open U.S. Senate seat and a term-limited governor, both expect a big turnout.
“We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out,” said Madonna.
The registration deadline to be eligible for this year’s election is Oct. 24.
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