PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — With the conflict in Ukraine heating up, one of the greatest impacts Americans will feel could come with a jolt at the gas pump.
World oil supply markets are built on guesswork.
Sal Risalvato, executive director of the New Jersey Gasoline, Convenience Store and Automotive Association, said the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not helping those who trade in these markets to build confidence that there will be enough oil supply to meet the demand.
"The speculation that will drive the price upwards right now has very good basis for believing that there will be a shortfall of crude oil," he said.
"If there is a significant cutoff of oil because oil is not flowing to other countries including the United States, then that could drive the price even further."
Risalvato said on the morning Russia invaded Ukraine, crude oil prices rose by $5 per barrel.
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"A $5 a barrel increase could mean about a $0.15 or $0.20 per gallon increase in gas prices at the pump," he said.
He further explained that an impact could come from supply issues directly from Ukraine, which supplies the world with a small amount of crude oil.
Risalvato added that we could start seeing that increase over the next several days, but supply and demand work two ways.
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"If in fact there is not a shortfall of crude oil worldwide, then it will drive the price back down," he said.
However, the mere factor of emotions and the human element can also play into the fluctuation of prices on the demand side of the equation.
"The situation in Europe is just messing with everybody's mind, and rightfully so," Villanova University chemical engineering professor Dr. Scott Jackson described on a recent KYW Newsradio In Depth.
"It's really destabilizing the whole world economic situation. Natural gas is piped right straight through Ukraine from Russia to Western Europe, and there's some oil transport but it's usually really natural gas. The whole situation is really making people nervous."
Jackson also said before the invasion that if it occured, such a price hike could remain.
"Holy crap, you can expect the price of oil to stay high," he said.
This could also create pain on the plane for some travelers as well as pain at the pump, as airfares could also rise because commercial flights can't travel in Ukrainian airspace.
"Right now the airspace over Ukraine has been closed. What that means is you take a look at the entire European continent map, airlines are now they can no longer fly over the country, they have to fly around it. That means they're burning more fuel," said CBS News travel editor Peter Greenberg.
"If this conflict continues, then the repercussions are going to be severe economically for the airlines as well as for the economies of those countries."
In the end, Risalvato believes the length of any price increase and the timing of any downward price swing is in the most powerful of international hands.
"Only the world leaders," he said, "can answer that question."
