Are the Astros buying players on the FA market? Are they making trades to acquire top talent? Are they making trades to move top talent? Are they building or rebuilding?
Well, the answer is likely: Both. General manager Dana Brown did say the Astros would have to be creative this offseason. They have players they potentially cannot sign, which means they need to find ways to replace them.
The team is still very much interested in bringing back Alex Bregman, but will face competition from some deep-pocketed teams for him, especially now that Juan Soto has come off the board and teams readjust their strategies.
The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays are all interested in Bregman, and all of those teams have designs on winning (even if the road to getting there is longest for the BoSox and the Jays have issues with keeping Vlad/Bo long term)
With Matt Chapman's six-year/$151 million deal ($25.16M/yr) and Willy Adames 7 year/$182M deal ($26M), it stands to reason Bregman is likely looking for something around 6 years/$180M ($30M/yr). Reports have been Bregman/Boras want something around $200M which would also indicate they're looking for 7 year deals. It would be extremely unlikely that Jim Crane would sign off on a 7 year deal, but its possible another team desperate to add with a bunch of money pushes the bidding higher than Crane is willing to go.
So what would be next?
Dana Brown recently said he felt internal options at 1B/3B were at least 6-8 months away if not a year. That made me feel like Brown was referencing Brice Matthews and not Shay Whitcomb or Zach DeZenzo. Joe Espada recently praised ZDZ's work in LF in the offseason as he learns the position, as the team seeks to find out if he can caddy LF for Yordan Alvarez (gotta go cheap in some places).
The team has been linked with free agent Jorge Polanco, but Polanco is 31, is coming off the worst season of his career (.213 AVG .296 OBP .651 OPS though most everyone in Seattle had an awful offensive season and some rebound should be expected) but he's also only played a total of 24 games in his 11 year career at 3B.
Polanco was never known as a great defender, has primarily been a below average defender at short and a league average defender at 2B.
His sample size at 3B is under 200 total innings so there isn't much to gauge how good a defender he could be at 3B, but he would be a guy essentially learning a new position and looking to rebound offensively, and that's a lot to ask in one year.
Nolan Arenado has been made available by the Cardinals. He still has 3 yrs on his deal at $21M/$16M/$15M.
However, he is 34, is also coming off a down season where his HR power plummeted from 26 to 16, his OPS is down 3 straight years from .891 to .774 to .719, although the Cardinals lineup was very weak around him last season as well.
Arenado won the gold glove at 3B in each of his first 10 years in the league, and has 6 Top-8 MVP finishes. His defensive metrics were still very strong last season, and his batting avg (.272) not far off his career mark of .285.
While the money on the contract isn't bad, the sharp decline and age is, and considering the Astros have already experienced older player sharp declines from Yuli Gurriel, Jose Abreu and Justin Verlander, maybe the aging and declining player should be the road not taken.
Which brings us to old friend Carlos Correa. The Minnesota Twins are a team in flux. The Pohlad family has put the team up for sale, and the team is expecting lower rights fees as it's RSN partner emerges from bankruptcy. These two things combined have led to rumors for months that the Twins would be looking to pare payroll, and Correa's contract is the biggest on it's books.
While Correa missed nearly half the season last year due to a foot injury, when he played he was terrific, batting .310 with a .388 OBP and .905 OPS.
Over the previous 4 years, Correa played no less than 135 games in each of the 3 full seasons and played 58 of 60 games in the COVID year, making the amount of him he missed last season more of an outlier over the past 5 seasons.
Correa is only 30, and while he would be moving from SS to 3B, possesses the cannon arm an elite 3B should have. He's a highly respected leader, and proven playoff performer. Correa is likely the only person available who can fill Bregman's role as a team leader, as Correa held that title before in Houston.
But what about that contract? It's probably not what you think...
Before the 2023 season, Correa signed a six-year/$200M contract with Minnesota, which he is two years into. It also has 4 vesting options after those 6 years, with descending value.
The guaranteed portion of Correa's deal is only 4 years. While it will carry a higher AAV than a deal Bregman would get this offseason, it's done earlier, so you aren't potentially stuck with an aged player on a high salary.
Correa stands to earn $37.3M/$32.8M/$31.8M/$31.3M over the next 4 years. They would pay him the most during what is still his prime years (age 30-33 seasons).
His age 34 season would be a vesting option that would require at least one of the following conditions be met: 575 PA in 2028/ Top 5 MVP finish 2028/Silver Slugger winner 2028/2028 LCS MVP/2028 WS MVP.
If it vests, he would have a $25M salary for his age 34 season in 2029
In order for his salary to vest in 2030, the same conditions apply for 2029 except the PA reduce from 575 to 550, and the salary would be $20M.
It repeats the following 2 years, with the same parameters except the PA would be 525 and then 502, and the salaries would be $15M and $10M.
What would it cost to get Correa? Recently it was reported that the Twins have said that Correa is available but that they won't just give him away. That means the team knows it has no leverage because they have to dump the salary and they are trying to hold on to any sliver of leverage they can.
A team that takes on Correa's salary can probably have him on the cheap, as the Twins are trying to make the books look better for a potential buyer.
Meanwhile in Philadelphia, the Phillies have made 3B/1B Alec Bohm available, and they have been working to rebuild their bullpen (especially late inning relievers).
USA Today's Bob Nightengale floated the idea to me on AREA 45 on Sportsradio 610 last Tuesday (12/3) that a deal of former closer Ryan Pressly for Alec Bohm makes a ton of sense for both sides.
Pressly would give the Phillies the proven closer (and proven playoff closer) they need while Bohm would fill a corner IF spot in Houston with solid production.
Bohm's ability to play both corners makes him an even better fit in Houston because they have a need at both corners, and gives them the flexibility that Bohm allows them to get the best potential fit for one spot and he can play the other.
While Bohm is not a young prospect (he's 28), he still has another year of arbitration eligibility after the 2025 season, so Houston would have him at least two seasons.
Pressly is a FA after the 2025 season and his $14M salary is high for an expected setup man, with Josh Hader anchoring the pen. The Astros already have Bryan Abreu ready to handle 8th inning duties.
An infield with either Bregman or Correa at 3B and Bohm at 1B would be pretty strong.
The Astros also need to address the OF. It seems that the team knows it is not going to sign either Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez after the season, and it makes sense to trade them for all you can get now before losing them for nothing after the season (OK a pick after the 4th round of the draft isn't technically nothing but it's certainly not much).
GM Dana Brown said yesterday that the team is listening on Tucker and Valdez and you can bet his phone lit up like the Christmas Tree in Rockefeller Center.
Tucker has been a tremendously durable player before fouling a ball off his shin at 120MPH.
That injury, however, should not impact his health going forward. He is a true 30/30 player, and a rare LH hitter who can hit LH pitching. Every team in baseball would love to have a Kyle Tucker in their lineup.
Some of the teams you will hear that have interest in Tucker won't make you happy. That doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is getting the absolute best possible package for him, regardless of the team that gives it to you.
Same for Framber, who has been both one of the best pitchers of the last 5 years but also one of the most durable.
Since they are both making under market salaries and the team that trades for them will have an entire year head start to work out a long term extension, they should both bring significant prospect hauls to reload a farm system that has very few top end talents, most of which are likely 1-2 years away at best.
Houston could work a blend of young players (Pedro Leon/ZDZ/Shay Whitcomb has some LF experience) with some older/cheaper FA signings (Max Kepler is a bounce back candidate, Jason Heyward seemed to find his swing late in the season in Houston and was a respected clubhouse presence, Randal Grichuk is still a solid bat who can play both corners)
Jurickson Profar is someone who will garner attention but he is coming off a career year at age 31 and that should have red flags all over it.
It's possible he finally turned the corner and showed the promise he once had as a prospect but how much are you willing to gamble in a contract that it wasn't a one year wonder? Profar has talent and if he can replicate last season would be a strong addition, but it's never a good idea to pay someone off a career year, especially this late in their careers and over 100 points higher than their career OPS. That is a high risk move that offers little upside because you may likely have just seen the maximum upside and regression is due.
It would make sense for the Astros to give CF back to Chas McCormick and look for him to rebound offensively. Chas has proven to be a very good defensive CF, but his bat - as he exhibited the previous three years but especially in 2023 - is what makes him an asset in CF, a position with low performance around the league.
Jake Meyers can flat out run down anything, but he also has no arm and has proven he cannot hit consistently at the MLB level. He is at best a 4th OF, and the Astros are likely best off moving him to a lower payroll team who values the cheap deal and the excellent CF defense.
If the Astros were to move Valdez, they would need to add at least 1 starting pitcher due to the incredible number of injuries their starters have experienced over the last two seasons.
Going to the cheaper end of the pool for a guy like Nick Pivetta (signed a 1 yr $7.5M deal last year with Boston, finished 6-12 with a 4.14 ERA - BUT also had 172K in 145.2 IP and a near 4.8 K/BB rate would indicate this is exactly the kind of guy with swing and miss stuff the Astros could get the most out of - similar to Yusei Kikuchi last year).
Kyle Gibson is 37 but is a durable starter that can eat innings at the back of the rotation. He should be cheap as well, he made $12M last year and should be no more than that (and likely less) this year. He was 8-8 with a 4.24 ERA on a bad Cardinals team last year. He's made at least 29 starts in each of the last 7 full seasons.
Right now the Astros rotation - should Valdez be traded - would be Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, and then hopefully Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr should they be ready to go. Both Garcia and LMJ were expected back last season after the break but both had multiple setbacks that prevented them from pitching last season at all. Houston hopes both are ready for Spring Training.
Behind that the depth is AJ Blubaugh and Ryan Gusto - both players who have not made their MLB debuts yet, so adding a veteran or two - even if they are a 'value priced' veteran - would help this team navigate the first half of the year as it awaits the hopeful return of Cristian Javier after the break.
The bullpen was the most puzzling part of the equation for Houston last year, as the addition of Josh Hader should have made the back of their pen the most dominant in baseball, but it didn't work out that way, especially the first six weeks of the season.
Eventually they would round into form, but it became clear Pressly was unhappy with his role. They made up a lot of innings from unexpected areas, as they lost 3 relievers to FA and one (Kendall Graveman) to season ending surgery before the season.
Should the team trade Pressly (reports are they are shopping him. While he has a no trade clause, he is expected to waive that clause to close again, especially for a contender), their pen currently profiles as this:
Closer - Josh Hader
Setup - Bryan Abreu
Middle Relief - Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Forrest Whitley (should he be healthy), Bryan King
That leaves 2-3 openings at a minimum. It's possible the team could reunite with Hector Neris who at 35 is likely looking at a one-year deal.
There is also the matter of Rafael Montero, who is still in the organization and still making $11.5M for 2025. The team will give him the chance to show that he has himself straightened out and that he can be a contributor to the pen in Spring Training. They also will not hesitate to cut him if he can't, as they have already accepted he is a sunk cost.
If Montero can regain his form, that could certainly ease the strain on the pen. How likely that is, unknown, but he will get a chance.
The market is absolutely flooded with relievers and the Astros should have no trouble finding a few.
The AL West is a weak division and even if the team has to move forward without Bregman, Valdez, and Tucker, it can still very much compete to win the division with the right moves. It can also set itself up nicely for the next 3-5 years with the right moves as well.
So, yes, the Astros are buying. They are also selling. They are building and rebuilding at the same time. Dana Brown said they would have to be creative, which should make this a must-watch offseason in Houston complete with high highs, low lows and lots of roller coaster thrills in between.