The idea Juan Soto turning down a $440 million contract offer is incomprehensible for most.
But from a pure business standpoint, it was probably the right decision.
Credit to the Washington Nationals, despite their struggles to build a successful team since winning the World Series three years ago, they are making a concerted effort to keep their 23-year-old star. Thus far though, their contract offers have not been enough, with Soto recently declining a 15-year, $440 million offer.
He’s not set to hit unrestricted free agency until after the 2024 season, so this would help him secure his long-term future ahead of schedule. But as Audacy MLB Insider Jon Heyman explained on 670 The Score’s “Mully and Haugh” on Monday, there really isn’t a ton of risk in turning it down.
“I don’t think the risk is really there for a position player," Heyman said. "If it’s a pitcher, obviously there’s a risk. But for a position player, it would take some kind of terrible tragedy for him not to earn, at the minimum, a hundred million dollars. It’s obviously a bit of a gamble. I talked to a few people around baseball who really analyzed it and did think that he did the right thing
“When Aaron Judge turned down $213 million I thought ‘Wow, that was quite a gamble, I would’ve taken that if I were him.’ Looking at this here, I would say if I were him I would turn this down too. These guys are very competitive, some of it is about that, and they want to get their value. … I think the issue was that $29 million was the average salary and certainly was somewhat backloaded, they’re arguing over whether it was deeply backloaded or gradual increases or whatever, but somewhat backloaded at $29 million a year. …
“I think as a free agent in a couple years, he’s going to get at least $36 million and probably much more than that per year. I don’t think it’s a big gamble for a position player who is 23. It would take some type of bizarre happening for him not to get huge, huge money.”
Indeed, the risk is minimal, but it isn’t nonexistent. He could sustain an injury that might impact his market, or his numbers could decline to a point where teams aren’t willing to pay him that much money though.
At this point though, those are what-ifs. And whether it’s on the trade market in the near future or in free agency down the road, Soto is going to be attracting a ton of league-wide interest.
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