Buffalo, NY (WBEN) - For the second time in the summer of 2022, it's Primary Day in Western New York.
LIVE Special Election coverage on WBEN at 9pm will track the race for NY23 and more with results, analysis and reports from campaigns
The most talked-about race remains the showdown for the Republican nomination in NY23 and WBEN political analysts say the battle is tough to handicap but believe Carl Paladino has the upper hand over Nick Langworthy.
Carl Calabrese says the race has gone mostly as predicted. "The kind of ads that you would expect in a race like this, that's what I've seen on television, a mixture of some positive and more negatives," says Calabrese. But he says handicapping this race is a challenge. "What we don't know, and we won't know until Election Night is, what side is really doing the grunt work, the grassroots work to identify people who are constituents, give them the information to motivate them to vote for candidate Paladino or candidate Langworthy," explains Calabrese.
Calabrese notes the confusion about the primary election season could lead to a low turnout. In fact, it could be as low as 10 to 12 percent. He says whoever gets people to the polls more will win. But going into the race, who has the upper hand? "This is a tough one to handicap," says Calabrese. "Paladino has the upper hand in name identification started with. He also has the upper hand in that district is Trump country. And you will think that Trump voters would also be very warm to a Paladino candidate. On the other hand, Nick Langworthy has the upper hand because Nick understands grassroots politics, got his education in local government, local politics, doing all of the basic fundamentals that it takes people to the polls." notes Calabrese, He says until he sees the overall turnout and who and where they're voting, it's anyone's race.
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Ken Kruly of Politicsandstuff.com says the race has gone from reasonable to very nasty, and he says that was expected. "They are both very ambitious guys. And I think that Paladino, of course, has a history of going after people in a variety of ways, though, Langworthy is more reserved. But once you get into charges back and forth, the whole thing sort of deteriorates," notes Kruly.
Kruly believes Paladino has the upper hand because of the anticipated low turnout. "The people most inclined are going to be probably the most committed Trump sort of voters," says Kruly. He adds Paladino has the support of those backing former President Donald Trump.
Jacob Neiheisel of UB says this has been a slugfest. "I've seen ads going back and forth on multiple platforms. And you've seen various poll releases saying that one candidate up and it's a lot closer race and some other polling," says Neiheisel, who notes this has been a competitive primary.
Neiheisel says there has been very little independent polling in this primary campaign, with a number of internal polls being released. "The problem with internals is that campaigns only release them that they're doing well in the poll," says Neiheisel.
Based on the makeup of NY23, Neiheisel believes Paladino has the upper hand against Langworthy. But he does expect the results to be very close.
The winner faces off against Democrat Max Della Pia, who could be a congressman after Tuesday's special election to fill the term vacated when Tom Reed resigned.
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