Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - New York's highest court is hearing arguments this week in Buffalo on whether the state must redraw congressional lines in 2024.
Local political analysts on both sides of the aisle tell WBEN a lot is on the line in Washington with the redistricting decision in the balance.
Last year, the Democratic-controlled Legislature drew congressional lines after Democrats and Republicans were unable to reach an agreement. The Court of Appeals ruled that Legislature hadn’t followed proper procedure in adopting the maps. A judge instead had an independent expert draw a new set of congressional lines that, along with strong GOP turnout, led to Republicans flipping seats in the New York City suburbs and gaining control of the House.
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Republican political strategist Carl Calabrese says control of the House is at stake. "Republicans only have a four vote majority. And if you recall, back in the election of the midterm election of 2022, which was supposed to be a red wave turned out to be a red trickle," says Calabrese. But he says those four seats gained in New York were key to Republicans gaining control.
As Democrats argue new lines need to be drawn, Republicans want the lines kept as they are. Calabrese says there's a big difference on the court. "One of the judges that voted to throw out the Democrats' highly partisan map is no longer on the court and was replaced with a probably pretty liberal judge. So the Democrats feel that they've got a pretty good chance of reversing the maps that the special master drew, and getting the whole process going again, before the next election and, and driving it towards a very pro Democrats series of maps," says Calabrese.
Ken Kruly of Politics and Stuff agrees. "If the court determined that the legislature could draw the lines, then the lines might be a little more competitive for Democrats than they were the last time," says Kruly. "It could have an impact because there are about a half a dozen Republican seats in the house from New York currently, that were won by relatively small margins. And so another redistricting could affect them and, in turn, losses by the Republicans in those seats could affect who controls the House of Representatives," notes Kruly.
Kruly says this case could be huge in determining control. "Considering the chaos that's been going on in the House for the past year, with Kevin McCarthy and the current speaker and (Republicans') failure to be able to govern. There's a major issue there for the 2024 elections, and probably the decision in New York will certainly have some effect on all that comes out," notes Kruly.
Both think a decision will come by the end of this year.