More than $11 million dollars has been spent by outside parties, hoping to either keep democrat Angie Craig in congress or replace her with republican challenger Tyler Kistner. It's the most money being devoted to any congressional race in the state.
“I’d say it’s a top 10 or 15 district in the country,” said WCCO political analyst Blois Olson. “Republicans want to pick up 15 to 20 seats so they invest in trying to defeat Angie Craig. That creates a need for Democrats to say they need to defend Angie Craig.”
The race, like many others throughout the state, remains tightly contested. In the most recent polling by KSTP and SurveyUSA, Craig led by 46 percent to 45 percent for Kistner. 5 percent of the vote was for Paula Overby, the Legal Marijuana candidate who will remain on the ballot despite Overby passing away in early October.
That throws an added wrinkle into the race. Last year the same scenario happened, with the Legal Marijuana candidate Adam Weeks dying two months before the race but still received 6 percent of the vote. Olson says neither party knows what to expect this time around.
That’s the great unknown is that the candidate did get 6 percent last time and what do they get now and who does that hurt? There’s long be a democratic theory that Republicans are recruiting third-party candidates to give them a better shot at winning this race. We won’t know that until all the votes are counted,” added Olson.
It's no surprise the race is close.
The two candidates faced off in the 2020 election with Craig winning by 2.3 percent, less than half the winning margin that Joe Biden carried over Donald Trump in the same district. The biggest issues for voters in the district closely mirror national trends, with crime amongst the most important. Kistner says Craig is part of the problem
“It’s really the rhetoric from the defund the police movement and their allies who’ve literally supported Angie Craig and had these disaster effects on law enforcement’s ability to effectively recruit and retain these officers who keeping our communities safe.”
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Craig pushes back, saying she hasn't been in favor of the “defund the police” movement and was against the Minneapolis ballot initiative to do so.
“I felt very, very strongly that I needed to call it what it was which just a very bad idea was. That’s why I’ve voted to fund the police time and time again.”
While Kistner has pushed crime and inflation as his top talking points, Craig has been on the offensive when it comes to abortion, citing Kistner's inconsistent position on the issue.
“Personally, I’m pro-life with exception for rape, incest, and life of the mother,” Kistner said.
Craig meanwhile has been a supporter of codifying Roe V. Wade into law.
Olson says there's one other issue that will likely impact voters more so in the second district than in others and that's agriculture.
“It’s a pretty heavily ag district and Angie Craig is on the ag committee. You’re not going to see that on TV ads but I definitely think that between whether it’s direct mail-radio relationships or organizing grass roots, it’s definitely one of the issues people talk about a lot.”
538, a political polling analysis company, says the race currently "leans democrat."