The 2022 election cycle has long been considered a Republican bounce back year with momentum headed into Midterm Elections.
However, Amy Koch, a Republican and former Minnesota Senate Majority Leader says despite that early momentum, Republicans should have some caution.
“A lot of people are comparing or talking about how this year is such a fantastic Republican year,” Koch said on Sunday Brew with Blois Olson. “It's going to be the best year we've ever had. Honestly the polls are not showing as good as 2010 and so I would caution Republicans. It's definitely going to be a good year for Republicans but it's not going to be like 2010, a blowout year.”
In 2010, Republicans in the state swept the house and senate races, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer lost a very close race to Mark Dayton who won by less 9,000 total votes. Koch took control of the senate after the 2010 elections.
“Republicans won control of the House and Senate, they were favored on a general ballot statewide by 9%,” explains Koch. Republicans currently have a 1.6% advantage.”
2022 is shaping up in some similar ways to 2010, and there are definitely opportunities for Republicans across the board thanks to issues with inflation, crime and public safety, and how some voters across the state view the handling of COVID-19 by Governor Walz and other DFL state leaders.
WCCO political analyst Blois Olson says demographic changes since 2010 also will play a big role.
“They are energized but the margins and polling are not what they were in 2010,” explains Olson. “The differences in the districts and the demographics of the districts are not necessarily what they were then, because in that year they felt like that was the first year that they started to really feel some of the population boom in the exurbs, you know, the Wright Counties and the St. Michael's and that area. We don't have that this time. There are some other population areas that have grown down in Carver County and it is just interesting to kind of reflect and then look ahead and say, you know, what does this year feel like? What are the issues this year versus then, and which party’s in a better space to deal with them?”
As for the Governor’s race between incumbent Tim Walz (D) and Dr. Scott Jensen-Matt Birk (R), polls are saying it is a very close race. The issue of abortion rights has now come into that race, and it could be hurting the Republicans due to some comments made by Birk.
A video of Birk at a pro-life event in Atlanta talking about abortion and women’s rights were labeled as sexist by pro-choice people, democrats and were roundly criticized by Walz and his Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan. Birk says a lot of the clips and quotes shared across social media were “misconstrued” because they were lacking context.
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"A rape is obviously a horrible thing, but an abortion is not going to heal the wounds of that. Two wrongs is not going to make it right," Birk said at the June 24 event in Atlanta. "It's a hard conversation to have, but that is the truth."
Birk released a video of his own, and in an interview with WCCO Radio’s Jason DeRusha, doubled down on those same comments. He then said “abortion is not on the ballot” despite it becoming a hot-button issue for many voters in Minnesota and across the country following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and put those abortion rights back on states to decide.
Koch says Birk made a terrible mistake, but she does say it's too early to say it's a fatal mistake for the Jensen campaign.
“I think that Birk had a bad week,” says Koch. “I think he’s going to have to figure out what they’re going to do with the whole statement about women having careers. It basically sounded like he was saying stay home, stay in the kitchen, and that is going to be a problem for him. So they’re going to have to figure their way out of that. But it’s not necessarily fatal.
It’s how they recover.”
Republicans have not won a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006 when Tim Pawlenty was reelected as Governor.
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