Minnesota's COVID-19 surge fueled by the highly contagious Omicron variant could reach its official peak by January 26 according to Mayo Clinic's COVID-19 predictive modeling.
Mayo Clinic data scientist Dr. Curtis Storlie said Wednesday morning that peak will be reflected in reported cases and the state's seven day average.
"When we see a peak for reported cases and seven day average, we've already had our peak," Storlie said. "We're talking about seven day average and reported cases, which are also lagged. It's very possible in reality that in many areas of the state we already hit our peak. We'll see it in reported cases several days later."
According to the Minnesota Department of Health, Minnesota reported 10,651 new infections on Tuesday and 29 COVID-19 deaths. Tuesday's data included data back to 4 a.m. Friday, January 14.
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When the peak arrives, Storlie expects case numbers to drop rapidly and return to a more "normal" look in Minnesota. What's after the peak remains uncertain based on two factors, including the evolution of the virus and how willing the population is to embrace the COVID-19 vaccine and boosters.
"We'll have a pretty robust immunity for awhile for a honeymoon period and cases will be low for several months," he said. "Then it's up to us. How much are we willing to take this seriously and prevent another variant in the future?"
While case numbers are expected to drop, there's a renewed call to continue practicing safe guidance when it comes to slowing down COVID-19 transmission.
Dr. Conor Loftus at Mayo Clinic says the hospital remains full and reflects what's happening nationwide.
"The ICU and hospital are both very busy," Dr. Loftus said. "The majority of patients that are hospitalized with serious illness related to COVID are unvaccinated."
Dr. Storlie added that masking and avoiding large groups in the next few weeks will be critical towards driving case numbers even farther down.
"It will send us down much faster and produce even more rapid decrease, fewer cases, on the way down," he said. "That's important because if we're getting up to the neighborhood of up to 300 cases per 100,000 people in the state."