Aaron Judge has turned down the Yankees’ contract extension offer, meaning the face of the franchise will hit free agency this winter, and suddenly, the thought of Judge in a different uniform next year is a much more troubling possibility.
General manager Brian Cashman told reporters on Friday, just before the Opening Day deadline where Judge would cut off extension talks, that the team offered a seven-year extension at $30.5 million per year, plus a salary of either $17 or $21 million this season, his final year of arbitration.
Judge turned it down, and many wondered how a player just weeks away from his 30th birthday with a history of injuries would decline such an offer and try his luck in free agency. Well, when looking closer at the deal and how it compares to others around the league, it isn’t as outlandish of a decision from Judge, even when staring at seven years of security and over $200 million.
First, let’s look at the AAV of $30.5 million. The highest ever belongs to Max Scherzer after Steve Cohen and the Mets signed him to a record deal this past offseason, paying him over $43 million per year. The next highest is Gerrit Cole as $36 million, and the highest position player is, understandably, Mike Trout, at just over $35.5 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
The next five names on that list? Carlos Correa ($35.1 million), Stephen Strasburg ($35), Anthony Rendon ($35), Francisco Lindor ($34.1), and Trevor Bauer ($34).
If Judge were to make $30.5 per year, he would also wind up making less than Corey Seager, who signed a 10-year, $325 million deal with the Rangers before the lockout this past winter. Seager, two years younger than Judge, has compiled 21.3 WAR in 636 career games, while Judge holds a 26.4 WAR over 572 games. Judge is coming off a six-win season where he smashed 39 home runs and posted a .916 OPS, one point better than Seager.
Why compare the two? Well, Seager just signed a massive deal in free agency despite having injury concerns of his own. He hasn’t played more than 145 games in a season since 2017, his last All-Star campaign, and managed just 26 games in 2018, 134 in 2019, and 95 last season. Seager missed significant time last season after being hit by a pitch on the hand, which is more of a freak injury than a sign of being injury prone, but the same happened to Judge in 2018 when he was hit on the wrist by a pitch.
Now, let’s look at another shortstop in Correa. He didn’t come to an extension agreement with the Astros, held out in free agency for a Seager-like deal, but eventually inked a three-year deal with the Twins worth just over $105 million. Correa is only 27, but he also has had some injury troubles. He played 148 games last season, the exact same as Judge, and Correa hadn’t played more than 110 games in a season in the four seasons prior. In 2021, he posted an .850 OPS (compared to Judge’s .816) with 26 home runs, but his defense also makes him extremely valuable, as he finished 2021 with 7.2 WAR, the highest of his career.
So, why would Judge turn down seven years of security with over $30 million coming his way per year? Well, some players that have produced around the same or less than Judge in their careers are making more money on the open market, and Judge may believe that if the Yankees don’t pay him more, another team will. He also is coming off his best season since his monster rookie season, and, perhaps more importantly, his healthiest. The Yankees are now firmly established in the health program of Eric Cressey, the team’s director of player health and performance, and Judge could be confident that his injuries are behind him. If he were to turn in another six-win campaign this year, he would almost certainly make more than $30.5 million a year.
So, in short, Judge is certainly betting on himself in 2022. The Yankees’ offer seems like a solid deal, but it would no longer look that way if Judge is once again healthy and his peak self this season. The Yanks would be wise to pay him if he indeed does deliver again in 2022, as there are currently no pending free agents that could match Judge’s value.
Follow Ryan Chichester on Twitter: @ryanchichester1
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