Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - When it comes to the NFL playoff picture, the Buffalo Bills are considered to be "in the hunt". It was a spot that felt permanent for the Bills during their 17-year playoff drought.
Those days were supposed to be gone, at least for a while, but here we are in the first week of December with the Bills are surprisingly on the outside looking in.
The Bills are 6-6 with five games remaining, and have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL over the next five weeks. They also have very little room left for error from a mathematical standpoint. Currently 11th in the AFC, the Bills have a 15% chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times Playoff Machine.
I don't read the Times, I can't even do their crossword puzzle. I just look at their playoff machine.
How about some historical, albeit short, perspective?
In the first two seasons of the 17-game schedule, every team that had, at least, 10 wins earned a playoff spot in the AFC. Six teams ended up with nine wins, and just two of those six made it to the postseason.
A 9-8 record was good enough to get the Miami Dolphins in the playoff field last season. The Pittsburgh Steelers got a spot with a 9-7-1 record in 2021.
But there is one big problem when it comes to the Bills and the Wild Card race, assuming the Bills don't overtake Miami for the division, which, at this point, seems like a long shot.
The Bills have a 3-5 record in games against AFC opponents, which is a key tiebreaker for the playoffs. Among the teams ahead of the Bills in the conference standings right now, only the Denver Broncos (3-5) and Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) have losing records in conference games. However, both of them have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills.
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The schedule and the math do not look pretty, but if there is one reason to have hope, it's the return of Josh Allen and the Bills offense that we've come to know and love.
In the first two games with Joe Brady as interim offensive coordinator, the Bills have averaged 33 points. They averaged a mere 20 points in the previous six games, which led to the firing of Ken Dorsey.
In a win over the New York Jets and a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Allen had 710 total yards of offense, to go along with seven total touchdowns. His numbers are up across the board, including his rushing yards. Allen had season-highs of nine runs and 81 yards in the loss to Philadelphia.
If the offense continues to play like this, the Bills can win any of their remaining five games.
Now here comes the bad news.
The Bills defense is holding this team back. No question they are undermanned due to three big injuries to Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones, but last time I checked, they were still putting professional players out on the field and have been unable to get clutch stops at the end of games.
The Bills should be/could be 10-2 if the defense was able to close out games.
In the season opener against the Jets, the Bills had a 13-6 lead going into the fourth quarter, but they gave up 10 points and went on to lose in overtime. Special teams shares the blame there for giving up the game-winning punt return touchdown.
In Week 7 against the New England Patriots in Foxboro, the offense scored a touchdown to give the Bills a 25-22 lead with 1:58 left. However, the defense gave up an eight-play, 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive to Mac Jones. MAC JONES!
In Week 10 against Denver, the offense put together a go-ahead touchdown drive that had the Bills in front, 22-21, with 1:55 left. The Broncos drove down for a game-winning field goal. I'll skip the part about Denver missing that initial field goal attempt, but getting a second chance due to a Bills 12 men on the field penalty.
Then there's the loss in Philadelphia.
Allen and company get a touchdown that gives the Bills a 31-28 lead with 1:28 left, but the defense can't prevent the Eagles from hitting an overtime-forcing field goal. Then in overtime, the Bills get a field goal on the first possession, but the defense fails to stop the Eagles once again, and they give up a game-winning 75-yard touchdown drive.
In case you forgot, in the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, the Bills scored to pull within five points, 18-13, with 4:03 left in the game. However, the Jaguars marched 75 yards for a touchdown that put the game away.
In Cincinnati against the Bengals, the offense scored a touchdown to narrow the Bengals' lead to six points with three-and-a-half minutes left. The defense couldn't get a stop, and Cincinnati ran out the remaining time for the victory.
What you have to hope for is the offense continues to play like it did the last two games, and the defense looks more like the group that had an outstanding first half in Philadelphia. If that happens, it's not out of the question for the Bills to go from "in the hunt" to in the playoffs.
