'Rebuild' has gotten such a bad reputation that somehow 'retool' has become more acceptable.
Whatever you want to call it, the Tigers' situation is tiresome for a growing segment of their fans.
The Tigers last made the playoffs in 2014. They were most recently contenders in 2016. They have finished last in the AL Central in three of the past four seasons. They were third in 2018, but won just 64 games and nose-dived to 47 victories the following year. The fast start they had last season was quickly quelled with a dose of reality even in a pandemic shortened season.
Prospects, prospects, prospects…you hear a lot about the Tigers’ prospects. Yet there were no minor leagues last season, nor will there be until May of this one.
But ready are not, the 2021 season is on the way faster than you can say Opening Day.
What should we reasonably expect from the Tigers this season? Here are five thoughts:
1. Not contention, but respectability:
The White Sox began their rebuild in earnest earlier and more effectively than the Tigers. They are a powerhouse with a lineup that literally beat Tigers’ pitching into submission last season. The Twins are still formidable and Cleveland figures to remain solid at suppressing runs despite losing star shortstop Francisco Lindor and others. The Royals should be improved.
So it’s imperative the Tigers start to see genuine results at the MLB level from one or more of their three big pitching prospects, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal. They are not that young and inexperienced anymore. Ditto for position players Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes and Jeimer Candelario. The Tigers need to come out of this season with a much more defined nucleus. It’s more important than their final position the standings. However, the two things tend to go hand-in-hand. Of particular importance is Castro's defense at shortstop. He can hit, and has outstanding speed, but tends to throw sinker balls to first base and his range was questionable last season despite his athleticism. His defensive metrics were, in fact, terrible.
2. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson must make genuine progress:
The Tigers badly need lightning in a bottle from position player prospects, and these two are, obviously, by far the best hope. Yet for all the attention, Greene has played just a year of professional ball. He hit .219 for West Michigan when the Whitecaps were at the Low-A level. Torkelson has yet to make his professional debut. And no, last summer’s camp and the Grapefruit League don’t count. Good thing for the Tigers, too, because both struggled at the plate this spring.
Nonetheless, Greene is expected to start at Double-A Erie, and Torkelson at now High-A West Michigan. Of importance will be the position the Tigers deploy them when the minor league season begins. It seem like a stretch Torkelson is a third baseman, but the organization is insistent. Greene has displayed enough athleticism to be a good MLB center fielder, but a great right fielder. Where will he ultimately land?
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3. The A.J. Hinch factor:
Whether you hold the Astros’ sign stealing scandal against him or not, Hinch is arguably the best manager in MLB. Not only does his record speak for itself, but he checks all the boxes in regard to background, from being a former MLB catcher to extensive experience in player development and exposure to analytics. Chris Fetter, the former Michigan pitching coach, was high in demand because he’s ahead of the curve in regard to current elements such as pitch design, tunneling, spin and technology applied practically.
The Tigers do have a veteran presence. It’s imperative Robbie Grossman, Nomar Mazara, Jonathan Schoop, Wilson Ramos, Jose Urena and Julio Teheran have solid seasons. General manager Al Avila’s so-called bargain veteran acquisitions fizzled the last two seasons. Schoop was the notable exception in 2020. There is more possibility this group will have impact. It’s up to Hinch to put them in the best situations to succeed. That means meticulous attention to matchups, handling of the pitching staff and defensive positioning. Those have been among his strengths.
4. There is hope for Miguel Cabrera:
He still hits the ball harder than the vast majority of MLB hitters. Last season, his average exit velocity was 93.2 mph, sixth in the majors. The five players ahead of Miggy were Fernando Tatis Jr., Miguel Sano, Christian Yelich Mike Trout and Teoscar Hernandez. He was tied with Dodgers’ postseason hero Corey Seager. Cabrera was well above average in virtually all offensive data aspects except sprint speed, where he ranked at the very bottom. Those numbers were much better than in 2019. If his health holds up, it’s probable Cabrera will reach 500 home runs and 3,000 hits this season. He needs 13 home runs and 134 hits, and baseball-reference.com is projecting Miggy for 16 home runs and 129 hits in ’21.
5. The 2021 MLB Draft:
The Tigers hold the third overall pick this year and there are three very top-end prospects. Vanderbilt pitchers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are obviously high profile, but high school shortstop Jordan Lawler from Dallas is the biggest prize. I’d be stunned if the Tigers pass on Lawler if he is there at No. 3, but I’m not so sure he will be. The Texas Rangers pick second.
Opening Day is right around the corner. Grab your fresh Tigers gear now at Fanatics!