If LSU-Arkansas was a trap game, both fell into it, and the Tigers climbed out first.
Despite two turnovers sandwiching a punt on LSU's first three possessions, the defense never blinked. The Tigers did just enough in the 13-10 that puts LSU on the cusp of an SEC Championship bid that will be official if Alabama beats Ole Miss later in the day.
With all that in mind, here are my three quick takeaways from a frigid but successful day out in Fayetteville.
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BRIAN KELLY WON'T KICK (UNLESS HE HAS TO)
The new trend in analytics football is to take advantage of 4th and short whenever and wherever you get it, and nowhere could that be seen more clearly than the first half of this game for LSU.
Unfortunately for Brian Kelly, his team wouldn't comply. Kelly opted to go for it on 4th and 1 within his own 25 yard line early in the second quarter. It looked like Jayden Daniels would've picked it up with his legs. False start on freshman Mason Taylor, no play.
Still Kelly wasn't satisfied with giving up the ball, so he dialed up a fake punt run with Jay Bramblett. The punter picked it up. Holding. No play.
Ultimately the down and distance gave him no choice, and it worked out. Harold Perkins forced a fumble on the ensuing Razorbacks possession to set up LSU in prime field position.
The Tigers took over and drove for a field goal, their first point of the game.
Later in the half it was a 4th and 5 in the red zone when Kelly sent the offense out. Arkansas took a timeout, and they came out to run a play again. Ultimately a Josh Williams false start forced Kelly's hand. They kicked a field goal.
One of my issues with 4th down aggression is it often eliminates the programmed randomness that occurs when you send your defense on the field. Both scores came after instances where a 4th down attempt turned into a kick.
On the flip side, when the offense knows it has four downs to work with in virtually every situation as long as it's 4th and short, that opens up the playbook dramatically on third and medium. That was the case late in the first half on 3rd and 10. Jayden Daniels took a checkdown to Josh Williams. He got taken just shy of the 1. A more conservative offense might've accepted that as the end of the drive. We saw the inverse come true in the 4th quarter when Kayshon Boutte was stopped a yard short on third down and Josh Williams was unable to pick up the first.
For better or worse, aggressive LSU is here to stay. Make sure you don't get up for a bathroom break assuming a punt is coming, because you might miss something incredible.
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WEATHER GAMES ARE OVER
Jayden Daniels has been the starting quarterback for teams in Arizona and Louisiana. He grew up in Southern California. It probably shouldn't have been too much of a shock that a cold weather game wouldn't bring out the best in the Tigers quarterback.
That seemed to be the case early in the game when he threw an ill-advised pass for an interception on an RPO, and fumbled later in the first half. I'm willing to give him the 36-degree gametime temperatures as an out, mainly because he went into the game with just one turnover on the entire season. And even that came late in a blowout by Tennessee when he was trying to make something happen.
Daniels settled in and made sure to use his legs well throughout a low-scoring win over Arkansas. If this was a more talented opponent, those turnovers and a generally stagnant offense could've been costly. But this was simply a footnote on an otherwise ascendant season for the junior.
The good news? The college football postseason does a good job of making sure the weather doesn't have an impact on the results. The Tigers' next two games are against UAB in Baton Rouge, then the regular season finale against Texas A&M in College Station. Outside of rain, there will be little weather discomfort possible in those matchups. If the Tigers win both and secure a spot in the SEC Championship, they'll head indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. If they qualify for the CFP, it'll be at either the Fiesta Bowl (State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona) or back to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl. From there it'd be a title game in L.A.
All that is to say: LSU had a spread of hot chocolate, chicken broth and coffee on the sidelines for this game. It didn't seem to be particularly effective (at least not for the offense). Going forward it won't matter. LSU survived the ice game the way they had to. They won't have to do it again.
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HAROLD PERKINS ... GEEZ
It's rare to see a freshman linebacker making a major impact in the Southeastern Conference. The size and speed is just a lot to handle for a player coming out of high school, there's no shame in that.
That was never the concern for Harold Perkins, who has made a massive impact as a true freshman. And the way he's been used is the truly interesting part. Perkins greatest strengths are his speed and open-field tackling ability. Virtually every play that gets stretched to the sideline, he's there to finish it off. Whenever the QB thinks he has an angle, he's there to cut it off.
It truly is remarkable. LSU has turned Perkins into what amounts to a full-time spy at the linebacker level. It's an important role in college football and especially in the SEC, where it seems every team has elite size and speed at the QB position. Perkins has been able to erase that early and often.
He forced a fumble on Razorbacks QB Malik Hornsby in the first half. Early in the third quarter he took Hornsby down deep in the backfield on second and third downs to force a punt on 4th and 20. Even Arkansas biggest play of the day, a 40-yard TD pass from replacement QB Cade Fortin, came with Perkins blasting the QB a millisecond too late to impact the throw. Perkins got there in time on the next drive and forced what looked like a fumble that was overturned into a complete pass, but still forced a punt with 4 minutes to go.
But wait, he wasn't done. After Arkansas got the ball back in decent field position with time to drive for a field goal, Perkins got home again to force a fumble that was recovered downfield. The Tigers ran the clock out from there.
He finished the game with 8 tackles, 4 sacks, a QB hit, 1 PBU, 2 FF. The kid tied the LSU single-game record for sacks in a game.
Perkins has a bright future ahead of him as an every-down linebacker, but his ability in this current role might be just impactful for what LSU can achieve in 2022.
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LAGNIAPPE
Jayden Daniels had a rough game (7-of-14 for 82 yards, 1 INT; 18 yards rushing), but he still totes some of the more remarkable regular season stats you'll find. He's now completed 196-of-282 for 2,076 yards and 14 TDs against just 1 INT. Every yard he runs for resets the record book in that regard. He's run for 627 yards and another 10 TDs. ... Arkansas was also aggressive on 4th down, and it worked against them. They skipped a chance at a chip shot field goal in the first half for a 4th and goal shot at the 4-yard line. It didn't work. ... The 23 total points scored in LSU-Arkansas was by far the lowest total in a Tigers game this season. The next lowest total was 38 (New Mexico and Auburn). The Tigers' past three games (Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama) have had an average of 72.6 total points per game. ... Josh Williams has been elite in short yardage this season. He scored again from 1 yard in this one. His six rushing TDs this season have accounted for 18 total yards. But he was unable to get a hard yard on 4th and 1 midway through the 4th quarter that kept the Razorbacks alive ... Arkansas registered 7 sacks in the game, tied for the most allowed by LSU dating back to 2000 (vs Mississippi State in 2020). ... If Brian Kelly reaches the SEC Championship game, he'll become the fourth coach to do that (Les Miles, Gus Malzahn, Nick Saban).
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