Tenth-ranked LSU meets 17th-ranked Vanderbilt on Saturday at 11 AM. It’s a sentence I never thought I would write, LSU and Vandy playing each other and each team is ranked in the Top 25.
It’s only the fourth time these two charter members of the SEC have ever played each other ranked, and it’s the first time since 1947!
The Commodores are a 2.5-point favorite over the 10th-ranked Tigers. It’s also the first time Vandy has been the favorite over LSU since 1948.
Saturday’s game marks the 34th meeting between the two schools. The Commodores are looking for their first win against LSU since 1980.
The Tigers have won ten straight in the series.
Here are five things to look for when these two teams meet in Nashville.
1. Will LSU be missing two of its defensive starters?
Defensive tackle Bernard Gooden is listed as doubtful with a collarbone injury, and linebacker Whit Weeks is questionable with a bad ankle. It’s the same ankle that required surgery after Weeks dislocated it in the bowl game.
Defensive end Jimari Butler is also questionable. Weeks and Butler will be game-time decisions, and it doesn’t sound like Gooden will play.
Gooden has played the most defensive snaps out of all the defensive tackles on this team.
Coach Brian Kelly said if Gooden doesn’t play, that provides an opportunity for true freshman Walter “Bernard” Mathis to get more snaps. He’s played 60 snaps in six games this season. The four-star prospect had solo tackles in the South Carolina game and had three tackles versus La Tech.
2. Can LSU slow down Diego Pavia?
LSU’s defense has been elite at times, but Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is the Tigers' toughest test of the season.
Pavia leads an offense that averages 43 points a game, which is seventh seventh-highest in the country. The 24-year-old is second in the SEC with 14 passing touchdowns.
His favorite target is tight end Eli Stowers. The potential first-round pick has 25 catches for 329 yards and two touchdowns.
Pavia also leads the Commodores in rushing with 352 yards on the season. Kelly said this week they want to take away the run game, because he will beat you if he can run.
Vanderbilt as a team is averaging 209 yards on the ground, fourth best in the SEC. Vandy averages 6.6 yards per carry, which leads the country.
Vandy runs the modern version of the triple-option. They will shift and motion pre-snap, so the defense has to be disciplined.
3. 3rd down will be big
The Commodores are excellent on first and second down, and they don’t get behind the chains very often. Vanderbilt is third and short often, which is why the Commodores are second in the country in 3rd down conversions at 58%.
Kelly said the key is to put Vanderbilt in predictable situations, so they can put pressure on Pavia and let LSU’s excellent defensive secondary do its job against Vandy’s skill position players.
In last year’s 24-17 victory over Vanderbilt, the Commodores were just 2-of-10 on third down, while LSU was 8-of-13.
4. Can LSU establish a ground game?
In last year’s win over Vanderbilt, LSU rushed for 139 yards. A similar effort like that on the road will be key a for the Tigers, who showed some signs of developing a ground attack in last Saturday’s win over South Carolina.
Related
Left guard Paul Mubenga is probable with an ankle injury, so it’s expected he’ll return to the starting line-up.
LSU is 112th in rush offense. It’s amazing its that bad. Vanderbilt ranks 16th in rush defense, allowing 91 yards a game.
5. Garrett Nussmeier needs to have his best game
Eight times last year, Garrett Nussmeier threw for more than 300 yards in a game. This season, he has yet to do it. This might be the game for Nussmeier to eclipse the 300-yard passing mark. He appears to be over his ab injury; he’s playing with swagger, and Vandy has struggled against the pass.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns in Vanderbilt’s lone loss this season.
I have not had a good feeling about this game for months. I like Vanderbilt to win in a wild, heart-stopping game, 27-26.