Usually at this time of the year, a regional spot in the NCAA Tournament is locked up and LSU fans are looking forward to a long stay in Hoover, Alabama at the SEC Tournament.
But this year, the Tigers enter the final regular season series fighting for their postseason lives. Even a spot in the SEC Tournament is not guaranteed.
LSU only needs to win one game to clinch a spot in the SEC Tournament, but a sweep is likely needed for the Tigers to get into the NCAA Tournament.
“There’s a lot at stake; playing important baseball the last weekend of the season is a good thing,” said Johnson. “In spite of the difficulty this season, these games matter. We’re looking forward to giving our best effort at home against a team that’s in a very similar situation. I can validate that this is really important to our players, and I think the effort that they’ve given has reflected that.”
After digging themselves a hole by losing the first five SEC series, LSU has won three of its last four SEC series and 11 of their past 16 games. But they are 10-and-17 in the SEC and the conventional wisdom is 13 victories gives them a shot in getting into the NCAA Tournament.
But Johnson also wants the NCAA Tournament selection committee to look at other variables.
“Thirteen wins against teams that are projected to be in the field, third most nonconference wins, won a premier tournament (in Houston), we’ve obviously played a good schedule, so here we are. Do I want to be 10-and-17 in the SEC? No, but we still have a chance,” Johnson said.
LSU’s opponent Thursday, Friday and Saturday is Ole Miss and they are also fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Rebels are 11-and-16 and if they drop two out of three and finish with 12 league wins, they could be left out of a Regional too.
Ole Miss has won its last two series, beating Auburn and then taking two of three from a scuffling Texas A&M squad.
But it’s still a winnable series for LSU. Ole Miss is 13th in the SEC with a team batting average of .261. They are last in the league in fielding percentage with 64 errors in 52 games and the team ERA is 13th in the SEC at 5.91.
Gage Jump will start on the mound for LSU on Thursday and Luke Holman will start on Friday.
The Rebels’ best starter will pitch on Friday.
Sophomore left-hander Liam Doyle is 3-2 with a 5.29 ERA. But he’s struck out 77 hitters in 49.1 innings. The transfer from Coastal Carolina is coming off his best start of the season, six innings of one run ball against A&M and he struck out seven Aggie hitters.
For LSU to win this series, they’ll need to be strong on the mound, get some timely hits and some good fortune. For most of the season, the breaks have gone against LSU.
If the Tigers play poorly in this series against Ole Miss it will be the end of the season.