If you'd told most Saints fans the scenario before the season: No Alvin Kamara for three games, two of which were on the road ... 2-1 would've probably been considered a win.
So why does it feel so bleak? Well, the obvious answer is the Derek Carr shoulder injury that is expected to see him miss time. It could also be because of an offensive line that can't seem to find answers. But, really, it's because of just how close 3-0 was to being a reality.
The Saints led 17-0 midway through the 4th quarter, but found a way to lose 18-17. The result gave flashbacks to the loss to the Bucs in Week 13 of last season, though this one had the twist of the knife in the form of a missed field goal that'd have swung the scoreboard back in the Saints' favor.
Ouch, in more ways than one. With all that in mind it was a bit more difficult than usual to find stock up options, but I've done my best to find both those, as well as the stock down players after a Week 3 flop at Lambeau.
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STOCK UP
ALONTAE TAYLOR
Sometimes it feels like the best thing that can happen is for Alontae Taylor to make a mistake early, because the way he bounces back is always impressive. He was everywhere in this game, playing outside in base and in the slot in nickel. He missed on his first chance at Jordan Love in the backfield, but he came up big at key points throughout the game.
No one throws at Marshon Lattimore, so Taylor and Isaac Yiadom got tested over and over. For the most part they held up, but things went awry late in the game. Taylor finished with 5 tackles, a sack and 5 passes defensed.
One thing Taylor struggled with today was getting his head turned around for the ball. He was in perfect position on multiple occasions, but he was living dangerously. It ultimately burned him on a chunk play pass interference penalty. Alontae is a young player, but the traits are elite.
The question the Saints have to answer will be: If Paulson Adebo misses more time, do you move him outside or keep the same platoon as this week? We’ll find out in Week 4. Either way, the kid is impressive.
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CHRIS OLAVE
Every week Chris Olave does things that just make you shake your head and say … how? This week it was a casual one-handed grab on a shot play that set up a field goal in the first half.
But he’s been elite in every way, if we’re being honest. You name it, he’s done it over these first three weeks even as the offense has struggled on the whole. It was his long catch down the sideline that kickstarted the Saints’ final drive for what ended up being a missed 46-yard field goal.
Olave finished with 104 yards on 8 catches. He’s now up to 302 yards on 22 catches through three games. That’s a pace for 1,710 yards on 124 catches. Absurd, particularly when you consider how limited this offense has seemed for long stretches. The only thing he hasn’t done yet is get in the end zone, but that’s true for everyone but Rashid Shaheed, Tony Jones Jr. and Jimmy Graham, not exactly the names you might expect.
The Saints have a lot of questions on offense, but Chris Olave isn’t one of them.
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KENDRE MILLER
I’m going to be honest … it was a struggle to find a third option here. This was an ugly offensive game, and there wasn’t a ton that worked. That said, for a kid making his NFL debut in hostile territory, Kendre Miller certainly put a good foot forward.
He finished the game with xx carries and a team-high xxx yards. He ran with power. He found a few holes. I didn’t see any major blunders. He didn’t put the ball on the ground.
Alvin Kamara is back next week and the question to answer is at RB2. Do you stick with Tony Jones Jr. and a performance floor you trust, or lean on a young player who will keep getting better? Kendre’s day was good enough to at least for me to ask the question.
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HONORABLE MENTION: QB Jameis Winston; TE Jimmy Graham
Look, no, Jameis didn’t have a great day. The offense was a dud in the second half and generated a bagel on the scoreboard. But one thing that Jameis has always had is the clutch gene, and he showed that today. The Packers defense had all the confidence in the world when they kicked the ball back to the Saints leading 18-17 just outside the 2-minute warning. Jameis drove the field and set up a go-ahead field goal from a makeable distance. Your kickers shouldn’t miss from 46, even a rookie kicker. I think you can win games with Jameis, even if the offensive game plan has to change a bit. You kept him for a reason, that reason is here. … I was tough on Jimmy Graham last week, but he came through for a touchdown in this one. He’s here to be a red zone weapon and he was that today. It was his only target of the game, but it went for 7.
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STOCK DOWN
THE OFFENSIVE LINE
There’s really no sugarcoating this. The pass protection was a problem, is a problem and – from all indications – will continue to be a problem. Cesar Ruiz went down with a concussion, and that forced James Hurst to move across the line as Andrus Peat took over at left guard.
Not for nothing, James Hurst said during camp the switch to guard was a heck of a lot easier than switching sides. Everything is opposite and technique becomes even more difficult to be sharp on. We’ve seen the same story play out each of the first three weeks, and a significant injury to the starting QB was a product of that.
Derek Carr appears to have avoided a season-ending injury, but it’s tough to know how long they’ll be without him. Either way, things have to get better. There’s no way around it. I don’t know what you have to do, but we’ve officially gotten to a point where it’s cost you one game, and will likely continue to do that. When Derek Carr went down the Saints were leading 17-0 and in control.
It's difficult to even single anyone out. Everyone has taken their licks at one point or another.
Four sacks allowed in Week 1. Four sacks allowed in Week 2. Four sacks allowed in Week 3. The Saints are on pace to surrender 68 on the year. I’m not sure any quarterback is going to thrive under those circumstances. Figure it out, and do it fast, or this can and will tank what is otherwise a season with high expectations.
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BLAKE GRUPE
This isn’t particularly fair, but thus is the life of a specialist. Either you’re perfect or you’re the problem.
In this case it was a makeable kick that could’ve won a game, or at least close to it. The Packers would’ve still had time on the back end for a game-winning drive of their own. But they didn’t have to with Grupe’s 46-yard attempt leaking to the right for what was effectively the end of a demoralizing collapse after leading 17-0 in the 4th quarter.
When the Saints were deciding between Grupe and Lutz, this was the scenario that stuck in my head. While it’s possible Grupe is more consistent, I always trusted Lutz with the game on the line. He was nails in those situations. I think Grupe will be, too, but those first few attempts will be a wild card. We saw that today. I also think the conditions played a factor, and it’s the first time in his young pro career that he’s had to deal with them.
We can add the coaching staff in here to some extent as well, because I really wasn’t a fan of the decision to forego an attempt from 55 in the second half. NFL kickers have to be able to hit from that range consistently in the modern NFL. 55 is the new 45, and we know Grupe has the leg. He would’ve also been kicking with the win. Instead the Saints punted, and Lou Hedley deserves credit for pinning the Packers deep. The problem is they drove the length of the field anyway.
With points hard to come by in the absence of Carr, that choice took non-aggression to a new level. There’s this weird disconnect between the aggressive play-calling of Pete Carmichael and conservative decision-making in those situations that I’m really not a fan of. Either you go win a game or you don’t. Either you use the analytics or you don’t. The Saints made a similar decision in the collapse against the Bucs last season (punting on 4th and 1 at the Bucs 44, leading 16-3). We all know how that game ended. I would like to see this team be more analytically inclined in those instances, because I have a suspicion the analytics aren’t telling you to punt there.
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THE PASS RUSH
I’m not going to pinpoint anyone specific without watching the film, but it sure felt like the pass rush wore down in the second half of this game. Maybe it was fatigue, but Jordan Love just looked more and more comfortable as the game went on and by the end he was picking apart the Saints’ secondary.
The lone sack in this game was by Alontae Taylor. The only member of the DL with a QB hit was Khalen Saunders. Part of that is Love’s athleticism and his ability to extend plays outside of the pocket, but the fact is they didn’t affect the game the way they can and probably needed to in order to close this game out.
Carl Granderson got paid – and it was well deserved – and I expect he and Cam to get after Baker Mayfield in Week 4.