After the Saints' collapse against the Bucs I declared I'd stop talking about any playoff hopes unless some serious hijinks took place. Well, two weeks later, here I am again.
Now, let's be clear: The Saints' road to the playoffs is an unlikely one. FiveThirtyEight plugs New Orleans at a 2% chance to make it, even with back-to-back losses from division-leading Tampa Bay and a Saints sweep of the Falcons to secure that tiebreaker. The Buccaneers lead the way at 73%, the Panthers (by virtue of their potential tiebreaker) are next at 22%, and the Falcons sit at 3%.
But the fortunate thing you can say for the Saints is that while unlikely, it's a pretty straightforward road of results to hope for. First things first, here's how the NFC South standings sit after Week 15.
NFC SOUTH (as of Week 15)
1. Tampa Bay Bucs: 6-8
2. Carolina Panthers: 5-9
3. New Orleans Saints: 5-9
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
As the list above shows, things are as close as you could imagine considering the low level of success among those four teams. The things to keep in mind are the head-to-head tiebreakers. The Saints lose out if they finish with the same record as the Bucs (head-to-head sweep) but win out if they finish with the same record as the Falcons (head-to-head sweep). The Saints would also lose out if they finish tied with the Panthers (division record).
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THE STRAIGHTFORWARD SCENARIO
The simplest road for the Saints to get in: Win all your games and hope at least two of the Bucs' final three opponents help you out.
Here's the closing schedule for both teams:
Saints
- Week 16: at Browns (6-8)
- Week 17: at Eagles (13-1)
- Week 18: vs Panthers (5-9)
Bucs
- Week 16: at Cardinals (4-10)
- Week 17: vs Panthers (5-9)
- Week 18: at Falcons (5-9)
The matchups above show why despite it being a simple enough path, it's an unlikely one. The first difficult element will be going on the road to defeat the Browns. On its face it seems reasonable, though the circumstances are less than ideal. It's a short week with a Saturday (Christmas eve) kickoff and temperatures are expected to be in the range of 30 degrees. It'd also mean the Saints have to win back-to-back games, something they've been unable to do this season. Also, while the Browns' 6-8 record doesn't jump off the page, it's just the third start for Deshaun Watson, who was suspended the first 11 games.
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But wait, it doesn't get easier from there. The Saints then go on the road to face the Eagles, a team that's gone 13-1, is the odds-on favorite to be the NFC's top seed and will have some incentive to beat up the Saints to improve the 2023 first-rounder they got by trade last offseason. Still, it's likely the Eagles have wrapped up the top seed at that point, so there's some potential for players resting in advance of the playoffs. It's unlikely, but not impossible.
If those two things do happen, the Saints should be favored against the Panthers at home, though it's a Carolina team that's been playing well in the second half of the season and, in order for this scenario to exist, will likely have to be coming off a big victory over the Bucs and with a chance to win the division themselves.
It's also a tough scenario for the Saints on the Bucs side of things. It feels unlikely that the Bucs drop a game to a floundering Cardinals team that could be playing third-string QB Trace McSorley after injuries to both Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy. Yikes. That said, the Bucs have been awful recently outside of the final 5 minutes against the Saints in Week 13. They're one Saints collapse away from being on a 4-game losing streak, so who knows.
If the Cardinals get it done and the Saints win out, it'd only take one of the Panthers or Falcons landing a win to punch the Saints' ticket. If the Cardinals don't, the Saints would become huge rooting partners for their own divisional rivals over the final two weeks.
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Here's an example of how the final standings COULD look with the Saints getting out on top:
NFC SOUTH (projected scenario post-Week 18)
1. Saints: 8-9
2. Falcons: 8-9
3. Panthers: 7-10
4. Bucs: 7-10
Yes, believe it or not, a tumble from 1st to 4th is very much possible for the Bucs over the final three weeks of the season. It's not something I'd recommend betting on considering it's a Tom Brady-led team, but in this strange season no scenarios should be ruled out.
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WHAT ABOUT THE PANTHERS/FALCONS?
It honestly is that simple, assuming the results above apply. There's a chance the Falcons also finish 3-0 and end up tied atop the division with the Saints at 8-9, but that'd mean the Saints move on with the tiebreaker. The Panthers and Saints can't finish tied at 8-9 because one team has to lose in Week 18.
The most frustrating scenario would be if the Saints won out, the Falcons won out and the Bucs beat the Cardinals and Panthers in Weeks 16 and 17 before ending with a loss. It'd be frustrating because all three teams would be 8-9, but it'd be the Bucs coming out of the pack with the tiebreaker, and it'd be a direct result of the Saints' Week 13 collapse.
NFC SOUTH (projected scenario post-Week 18)
1. Bucs: 8-9
2. Saints: 8-9
3. Falcons: 8-9
4. Panthers: 6-11
Still, there'd be a silver lining. As of Week 15 the Saints are in line to hand over the No. 9 pick to the Eagles by virtue of the trade last offseason. If New Orleans can find a way to finish 8-9 or even 7-10, that pick would likely land somewhere in the mid-teens and be close to a wash with the No. 19 in 2022 (Trevor Penning) that they picked up in that deal. Missing the playoffs would be upsetting, but that's still some consolation and something that makes pushing through the line feel significant even in a doomed season.
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WHAT ABOUT THE 1-LOSS SCENARIOS?
Yes, believe it or not, the Saints would still retain hope for the postseason if they don't win out. But, as you can imagine, when your percentage chances are in the single digits assuming three wins, they plummet to depths that probably aren't worth talking about when you add another loss to the scenario.
This post is already longer than most people will read. Heck, if you've gotten this far down to read this sentence: Thank you [insert name here], you're a true (some might say delusional) fan, and that's something to be proud of.
But for now, I'll leave it at the fact that a 2-1 finish and playoff appearance IS, in fact, possible. It's a scenario I'll plan to lay out next week if the Saints can get out of Cleveland with a Christmas eve win. It'll feel more relevant then, because with an Eagles matchup looming, that'll be an important bit of information (particularly if the Cardinals can hold up their end of the deal). On the flipside, a loss to the Browns and a Bucs win over the Cardinals will make this type of post a bit too depressing to write, anyway.
Still, one thing is without question: For at least one more week the Saints play meaningful football. It might not mean what you hoped it would prior to the season, but beggars can't be choosers, right?
Until the next time.
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