Sorting out the dense middle of the pack in most tightly contested NFL season ever

13. Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
As I was watching the end of the embarrassing Falcons-Cowboys game this week, one that was taken by Dallas by a 40-point margin, I truly wondered how the Falcons were a four-win team. Then I saw that their victories were one-score games over the Giants, Jets, Dolphins and Saints — the last of which is something of an anomaly. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see Atlanta, with matchups against the Patriots and Buccaneers in the coming weeks, finish with nine or ten losses at year's end. With arguably the worst defense in the league.

12. Denver Broncos (5-5)
How can one team so handily beat the Cowboys on the road and follow that performance up with a one-sided home loss against the Eagles? It's hard to say, but seeing as four of the Broncos' five wins have come against the Giants, Jaguars, Jets and Washington Football Team, we're just going to chalk that Cowboys game up to the weird unpredictability of the NFL. Neither side of the ball has been too fun to watch, but the defense — which was supposed to be a fearsome unit before the season — has been most disappointing. Without Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, the unit is just mediocre, with the NFL's fourth-worst pass-rushing grade and a bottom-ten coverage ranking (per PFF).

Four of the Broncos' final seven games are against the Chiefs and Chargers, which is not a fun set of contests to look forward to.

11. Carolina Panthers (5-5)
As exciting as Cam Newton's return is, he couldn't carry a Patriots team with a similarly strong defense to the postseason in 2020, and even with stronger surrounding parts, I'm not so sure Newton can do the same in 2021. Like some other teams on this list, their wins have come against less-than-stellar competition — the Jets, Texans, Falcons and Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins-less Cardinals — and they have some tough matchups with the Bucs and Bills ahead.

It's hard to evaluate them too fully without a larger sample size from the returning Newton, and there's a chance he could impress. If that's the case, could three straight wins over the Washington Football Team, Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons give them momentum before a rough stretch to end the season?

10. Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
The Eagles are better than advertised, but they also feel like they can come up short — like, way short — if faced with a much tougher challenge. According to Pro Football Focus, they're the No. 5 offensive team on the year (with an unsurprisingly high score in the run department), and they're really starting to find their rhythm in that sense. Defensively, however, they're pretty messy, allowing chunk play after chunk play against capable offenses. A date with the Saints in Week 11 could quietly be the most important game of the season. A win there would push them closer to .500 before a very winnable stretch of games against the Giants, Jets, Washington Football Team, Giants again and WFT again.

9. San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
The win against the Rams was a statement and a shocker at the same time, but it seemed to come at a time when LA's offense was really sputtering for the first time all year, as they had struggled to put up points against the Titans defense one week prior. Still, a win is a win, especially against the juggernaut that is the Rams. If there was just more consistent quarterback play, the Niners should be able to push for a Wild Card spot, with an easy-ish remaining schedule save for the Titans and Rams.

8. Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
This really does feel like a team that can win any game or lose any game. Derek Carr is as gutsy and determined a quarterback as there is in the league, and the fact that the team has had to overcome so much turmoil this season and is still in pretty good shape speaks volumes. But do they have enough talent on this roster? Is there really enough there, on either side of the ball, to make them a legitimate threat for a playoff run?

I just can't see it and the analytics can't either, ranking them around the middle third in both offense and defense. The last two weeks, both losses, have also acted as a reality check as to where

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1)
The Steelers' easiest opponent going forward is either the Browns, Bengals or Vikings, all three of whom are, in my opinion, stronger teams than the Steelers (as the list below shows). That's tough. It also doesn't help that their easiest matchup of the season, against the Lions in Week 10, resulted in a TIE. Yikes.

A healthy Steelers can compete in any game, but Big Ben just isn't playing all that well in what should be his final year, and the AFC North is stronger than ever before. How far the defense can take them is the question, and with so many star presences on that side of the field, you can't rule a Wild Card spot out.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
A bye week came at the perfect time for the Bengals, who were coming off of two straight losses to the Jets and Browns. They showed a little bit of their true colors on the defensive side of the ball after getting out to a really strong start on the season, surrendering 34 and 41 points in those matchups, respectively. The schedule only gets harder, with the Raiders, Steelers, Chargers, 49ers, Ravens, Chiefs and Browns all serving as admirable competition.

This team still feels a couple of years away from making a legitimate run, but the strides that the offense has made with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase and the general defensive improvement are encouraging.

5. Cleveland Browns (5-5)
When Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are in the backfield together, this team is a completely different animal out there — no offense to D'Ernest Johnson — and the Browns should return to form in Week 11 against the Lions. If this is a close game, it'll be underwhelming, but I just don't think that's going to be the case. Getting back to their roots — as a smashmouth offense that sustains long drives and allows the defense to rest — will serve them well as a healthy team in the near future.

4. Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
In the Colts' five games this season with the most rushing yards, they're 5-0. In the Colts' five games this season with the least rushing yards — you can do the math — they're 0-5. The inverse is true for games with the most passing attempts vs. games with the least passing attempts... so do you think they've found their identity yet?

With a good defense and a less mistake-prone Carson Wentz, this could be a team to watch down the stretch as they search for an AFC Wild Card spot.

3. New Orleans Saints (5-4)
Who's to say that Trevor Siemian is a worse option at quarterback than Jameis Winston? Though the Saints are 0-2 in his two starts, they did ride Siemian to a victory over the Buccaneers in Week 8, and they very realistically could have beaten the powerhouse Titans in Week 10 with a healthy Alvin Kamara at his side in the backfield.

The defense is a stout unit full of playmakers, with the third highest PFF grade and a top-ten points allowed figure, and no team has an easy time outsmarting Sean Payton when he has that much talent on the less glorious side of the ball.

2. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
It can't be easy being a Vikings fan... but the crushing lows must make the highs, like Week 10's great win over the Chargers, feel even better. There are so many talented players on both sides of the ball that it feels like they can make a run, especially when the Wild Card competition will be teams like the Panthers, Saints and Eagles.

Analytically, they have a top-10 defensive unit and a top-12 overall team, and it truly feels like a few made field goals, switched coaching decisions and other minutiae of different game scripts could make this team a 6-3 one instead of a 4-5 one.

1. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Sure, they just lost to the team above them, but I'd still take the Chargers over all the teams in this 4-to-5-win club... and probably some teams with better records, too. We don't have to question what the offense can do, with Justin Herbert (kind of quietly?) putting together another great season — he's on track to throw for just under 5,000 yards and 36 touchdowns — with a number of strong weapons around him. It's an offense that, with the right gutsy play-calling from Brandon Staley, can beat any team in the league, especially come playoff time.

They already beat the Chiefs once this year and have another date with them in Week 15... and don't be surprised if the race for the division title is still very much up for grabs at that point in time.