The New Orleans Saints kept their season alive with a win over the Bucs, and they got a bit of the help they needed elsewhere.
The Rams sneaked out a win over the Giants on a missed 54-yard field goal, eliminating that path. But the Seahawks fell to the Steelers, meaning there's still a potential route to the NFC South title and the final wild card spot still in play.
Both roads will require some unlikely help, but crazier things have happened. Let's break down both paths below, starting with the division.
NFC SOUTH
1. Bucs: 8-8 (at Panthers)
2. Saints: 8-8 (vs Falcons)
3. Falcons: 7-9 (at Saints)
4. Panthers: 2-14 (vs Bucs)
For the second consecutive season the NFC South could potentially be won by a team with a sub-.500 record, but that would only happen if the Saints and Bucs both lose, which would allow the Falcons to sneak in with a three-way tiebreaker.
If the Bucs win they'll finish at 9-8 and either win outright or win a tiebreaker over the Saints, should they beat the Falcons. The only way for the Saints to win the division will be for the Saints to beat Atlanta, and then for the lowly Panthers to defeat the Bucs.
It's a longshot, considering the Saints will be pulling for the team with the NFL's worst record to win a pivotal game, and the Panthers lost 26-0 to the same Jaguars team that the Bucs blew out in Week 16. Still, there are some positive elements working in the Saints' favor for a bit of hope. For one thing, in most cases a team in contention for the No. 1 overall pick might not have an incentive to win, but the Panthers don't own their pick, and that pick is actually locked into the No. 1 slot regardless of what happens. Going out with positivity is the best scenario, the question is whether they can do it.
The game is also in Charlotte, and the Panthers have -- Week 17 not withstanding -- played better football of late. They beat the Falcons in Week 15 and pushed the Packers to the limit a week later. The last time these teams matched up the Panthers had the ball at their own 40 with just over 2 minutes to go and trailing by a field goal, but Bryce Young was intercepted on 4th down. There could be some confidence there, and the Bucs didn't exactly look like a dominating offense on New Year's Eve. There's some hope.
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THE WILD CARD
*4. Bucs: 8-8 (at Panthers)
5. Eagles: 11-5
6. Rams: 9-7
7. Packers: 8-8 (vs Bears)
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8. Seahawks: 8-8 (at Cardinals)
9. Saints: 8-8 (vs Falcons)
10. Falcons: 7-9 (at Saints)
11. Vikings: 7-9 (at Lions)
* = NFC South winner will be No. 4 seed and host a playoff game
As mentioned above, the Rams win over the Giants effectively takes them out of the equation for the Saints. The Vikings and Falcons could also still sneak in, but for the purposes of this breakdown we'll only look at scenarios where the Saints get to 9-8. If the Saints lose to the Falcons, they are eliminated.
Realistically speaking this is one of the less complicated roads you'll see, though it requires multiple results. The Saints will lose, effectively, every tiebreaker that matters. If they finish tied at 9-8 with anyone else, that team moves ahead of them.
If the Saints win and the Bucs lose, none of this matters. But if both teams win? The only path to the wild card would require:
- Saints beat Falcons
- Cardinals beat Seahawks
- Bears beat Packers
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The NFC South games go off at noon, while the other key games go off in the afternoon window, so the Saints will at least know where they stand by the time those two games kick off.
Again, there's also some reason for optimism from the two teams that the Saints need to win that have already been eliminated from playoff contention. The Bears blew out the Falcons 37-17 in Week 17 and is still clearly playing hard. They also have the benefit of owning the No. 1 overall pick regardless of what happens, so finishing strong will probably be of more value than the pick they own. It's possible they go out and beat up the Packers in a divisional game.
The Cardinals game is where I get more concerned. Arizona is still playing hard and upset the Eagles in a stunning Week 17 result, but that might be a bad thing. The Cardinals are now on the wrong end of a three-way tie with the Commanders and Patriots at 4-12, with a three other 5-11 teams (Giants, Chargers, Titans) also in the equation. A loss would guarantee a pick no worse than No. 4 and as high as No. 2. A win? That'd mean they pick No. 4 at the highest and potentially as low as No. 7. Who knows what the Cardinals will do in the end, but it's less than ideal.
Regardless, and much like was the case in Week 17, all the Saints can do is go out and win their game and hope for the best. It's not the ideal scenario, but it's the reality you're in.