The word "value" gets thrown around early and often when it comes to trades for NFL draft picks, and there's no one more fluent in the equations involved than a general manager.
But commonly held draft pick charts don't gauge the relative value of future picks. Mickey Loomis has the past 14 years of such trades "at his fingertips," but when it comes to a trade such as what the Saints pulled off with the Eagles this offseason, it often comes down to a concept that's much simpler, yet infinitely more complicated.
"The bigger piece is how does the player perform that we select," Loomis said, speaking Wednesday a day ahead of the first round. "Because, for example, if you traded your whole draft away and you got Tom Brady, everyone would say that’s a great draft. Now they wouldn’t say that it was a great trade before that happened, but after the fact they’d say ‘man, look at that.’ "
It's a truth that can't be ignored when it comes to player evaluation and selection on draft day: Some teams just do it better than others. And it's what Loomis is hoping can help set the Saints on the right track this season while holding picks at No. 16 and 19 and getting a second first-rounder a year ahead of schedule. The plan all along has been to accumulate as many quality players as possible, as opposed to packaging those picks to move up.
As always, the team is still working the phones for potential deals to possible go "forward or backward," but it wasn't the goal of the trade. The deal was first broached by Eagles GM Howie Roseman as he attempted to pick up some extra value from the third of Philadelphia's impending first-round picks. The deal turned the No. 18 selection into picks 16 and 19 for New Orleans, but it cost a third-rounder, a 2023 first and a 2024 second.
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“It’s an opportunity for us to get another good player a year ahead of time for a value that we liked,” Loomis said, a refrain he repeated in a handful of ways during his roughly 20-minute press conference.
It's also a bit of a gambler's mentality in Year 1 of the Dennis Allen head coaching era. Loomis joked that the main difference has been a "quieter" war room, with Payton's loud and impactful voice out of the mix. But in the end not too much has changed, because Allen's voice, and others', has been influential as well. Ultimately the true value equation will be determined by the Saints' success or failure on the field in 2022 and 2023, because that will determine just how good the Eagles' return will be on those future picks.
"If we have a successful season and we’re picking late in the draft, that favors us," Loomis said. "And if we don’t and we’re picking early in the draft, that’s a pretty good deal for Philadelphia, and that’s part of the equation."
Outside of that trade insight, the longtime Saints GM did what he does as well as anyone around the NFL: He said a large number of words without giving any key information away. Loomis declined to answer a question about the quarterback field. He wouldn't evaluate how this draft stacked up at the Saints' positions of need, but he indicated they expected to come away with a good haul of high-caliber players.
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The confidence could be an indicator of the scouting process getting as close to normal as it's been since 2019 after back-to-back offseasons with strict limitations due to the coronavirus pandemic. There's also the technical challenge of having to evaluate multiple picks in such a short span, though with the board set it's more about the ability to quickly field offers if they arise in between selections and seeing where the rest of the board stands. The last time the Saints had two first-round picks in close proximity was in 2011 when they landed Cam Jordan at 24 and Mark Ingram at 28. Both players are on the current Saints roster more than a decade later. The last time they had a pair of first-rounders was in 2017 when they ended up with now-stars Marshon Lattimore at 13 and Ryan Ramczyk at 32.
Regardless, this is a year where the Saints front office feels confident in their evaluations after two drafts of feeling a bit more "uneasy" than usual.
"We wouldn’t make a deal if we didn’t think we were going to end up with a good player in that spot," Loomis said, "but it’s never foolproof.”