With the potential for a Derek Carr trade officially out of gas, the question is bigger than ever: What will the Saints do for their next quarterback?
That's what we broke down on the latest episode of Inside Black & Gold. Check out the episode below. Can't see the embed? Click here.
Oddly enough, the answer could still be Derek Carr, but it will have to wait through a potential bidding war and almost certainly be more costly than the $40 million guaranteed on the contract that will be void once he's cut by the Raiders this week.
Here's how I break down the potential 2023 QBs by tier heading into free agency.
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UNCLEAR TIER*
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens
NOTES: It's tough to slot Lamar at this point, because we really need to see what the Ravens do before saying whether he'd be a premium free agent or a premium trade target. Either way, bringing in Lamar would be costly as you'd almost certainly have to commit to 5-plus years and more than $200 million. Still, it's probably worth it. The question is how much you'd also have to surrender in trade. It feels highly likely that the Ravens use the franchise tag, but would they really trust him to play on that tag considering how we saw this past season end? That's unlikely. If the Ravens don't pay him, it'll be a question of how many teams get in the running, and if a team like the Falcons goes all-in with a top-10 asset to throw around, it'll be tough for the Saints to be competitive. Lamar doesn't have a no-trade clause. This will be all about value.
With all that in mind, it's tough to gauge at this point, so we'll stick to the names below.
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TIER 1
- Derek Carr, Raiders
- Geno Smith, Seahawks
- Daniel Jones, Giants
NOTES: Now, I'm aware this is probably tier 3 when it comes to actual starting quarterbacks in the NFL. That's what makes this year so complicated to be in the QB market. These are the top names available, and to bring one in, you'll have to pay top-dollar for it. That sure makes Derek Carr seem a lot more valuable, eh? It's highly unlikely the Giants let Daniel Jones walk after such a successful Year 1 with Brian Daboll, and if Geno Smith is available, it means the Seahawks wanted to move on. That doesn't really inspire confidence. So far, this is a list that makes it look even more likely the Saints go hard after Carr in free agency. It'll just come down to whether he wants to be in New Orleans and if they can get him at a number the team can stomach.
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TIER 2
- Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
- Jameis Winston, Saints
NOTES: I'm aware Jameis Winston is already on the Saints, but oddly he still feels like one of the less likely options on this list. That's just what happens when you get benched by a team (granted as he continued to recover from injury). Have the bridges been burned? Can they be rebuilt? If so, if the Saints strike out on Derek Carr or are unwilling to break the bank, Jameis sure feels like one of the better options remaining. If the situation is unsalvageable, Garoppolo is a proven winner who should be able to get the job done, but will he sign on to be a bridge yet again?
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TIER 3
- Teddy Bridgewater, Dolphins
- Baker Mayfield, Rams
- Sam Darnold, Panthers
- Andy Dalton, Saints
NOTES: If the Saints ends up here, it's a big yikes. But that's the nature of the QB market this season. If any of these four guys get brought in, it'd have to be with a young QB nipping at their heels. That's especially true if it's Dalton or Bridgewater, considering they're also on the wrong side of 30. Mayfield might be an intriguing option, but do the Saints really want to be the island of misfit No. 1 picks? They already tried that already with Jameis Winston, and it didn't go the way they hoped, and Sean Payton is no longer around to say "don't worry y'all, I got this." It's a tough sell to me.
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TRADE TIER
- Aaron Rodgers (or) Jordan Love, Packers
- Mac Jones (or) Bailey Zappe, Patriots
- Ryan Tannehill, Titans
NOTES: I see all of these as highly unlikely. The Packers have already indicated they don't want to trade Rodgers within the NFC, so even if he is dealt, it's probably elsewhere. The Patriots had a chance to move on from Mac this past season. They didn't. I find it hard to believe they'll do that in the offseason. Tannehill might be worth kicking the tires, but you're definitely not getting a discount with his contract due to hit $36 million against the cap next year. If you're going to sling $40 million at somebody, I'd rather it be Derek Carr.
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DRAFT TIER
- 29: Anthony Richardson, Florida
- 40: Tanner McKee, Stanford
- 71: Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
NOTES: I know Anthony Richardson is currently getting top-10 love, but I expect him to fall during the draft process. The combine is coming up, and that's where I expect teams to get a better appreciation for the fact that he's a bit of a project. But that's OK for the Saints, in my opinion. If they can get him at 29, or maybe even get aggressive and climb into the teens, I'm OK with it. It'd require a bridge season or two, but that's OK. Tanner McKee is kind of a wild card at this point. He wasn't at the Senior Bowl and could make or break his case at the combine. Hooker is a name that a lot of Saints fans are in love with, but is the team? He's still working back from a knee injury that ended his college career. Maybe he's a guy that the Saints can bring in during the third round and give him a shot to grow behind an entrenched QB.
That's how I see it, at least right now. And as you look at that list, it starts to make more sense why the Saints probably felt like trading for Carr and getting ahead of the competition was worth it. But the QB made sure that couldn't happen, and now we wait.
What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @Jeff_Nowak
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