We're getting closer and closer to the New Orleans Saints' 2024 season, so it's time to get bold.
On the latest episode of the Inside Black & Gold podcast, we broke down some of the more extreme takes -- the definition of that term will vary for some -- that we have after the first slate of practices. Listen to the full segment in the player below.
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For clarity, we won't call it a bold prediction if it's something a lot of people expect to happen. Heck, it might not even be likely. That's kind of the point. But these things could happen, and we've got some reasons to think they might. So what exactly are those bold predictions? Here's a quick breakdown.
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1. Saints finish top 5 in sacks
There was once a time when this wouldn't have seemed bold at all, but the 2023 season definitely dumped the expectations a bit as far as the pass rush is concerned. That team logged just 34, led by 8.5 from Carl Granderson, a figure that ranked No. 28 in the league.
I think that changes this year with the addition of Chase Young and some other really intriguing pieces. We've got Bryan Bresee going into Year 2 and already an effective pass downs player. Isaiah Foskey should also be expected to take a leap. If Payton Turner can stay healthy, a big if, he's a talented player who can make an impact. And then we have Cam Jordan, a player who is coming off of a down season but seems committed to proving it was an aberration, even as he heads into his age 35 season. That's not to mention pass rushing linebackers like Willie Gay who should help tamp down the mobile quarterback issues.
The early returns for that group have been very positive, and it really isn't as far of a gap from 28th to 5th as you might think. If the Saints can average just one more sack per game than they did last year, that'd add 17 to their total. At 51 sacks, they'd have been tied with the Colts for 5th in the NFL. It's obviously not an easy task, but I think this group is capable. We'll see.
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2. Taysom Hill has more catches and yards than any TE on the roster
This probably isn't particularly bold, but it is something that could surprise anyone who isn't paying attention. Taysom Hill has been used all over this offense and his role should have some consistency with what the 49ers liked to do with their fullbacks and even some of do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel.
Taysom is coming off a career high in catches and receiving yards (36-291), and it's clear that Derek Carr likes to throw him the ball. We're still waiting to see Juwan Johnson get back to practice after his offseason foot surgery. Banking on a full healthy season from his is tough, and the depth behind him doesn't really jump off the page (though Dallin Holker does seem to have solid upside as a receiving TE). The wild card will be if Taysom gets more involved in the traditional run game/run blocking, but we'll have to wait and see how that develops.
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3. Jordan Mims slots in ahead of Kendre Miller on the depth chart
In another year I might not have said this, but Klint Kubiak's scheme relies heavily on the running back position, and to this point he hasn't seen the 2023 third round pick take a single rep in training camp.
Miller was drafted by a different offensive braintrust and there's been nothing but injury issues. He's a promising athlete, but that doesn't matter much if you can't get on the field.
At the same time Mims, a UDFA out of Fresno State heading into his second season, has looked consistent and flashed good speed, vision and hands out of the backfield. I have questions in pass protection, but you'd be able to say the same about Kendre. Jamaal Williams feels like a lock ahead of Mims as the best pass-protector of the group.
We're still a week away from the first preseason game and Kendre has time to change this narrative, but right now I'm going with the player I've seen and been impressed the most by, and right now that's the man named Mims.
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4. Trevor Penning starts all 17 games and is... FINE
It's weird to qualify this as a bold prediction for a former first round pick, but it's not weirder than the start of Penning's NFL career. From bookend foot injuries in his rookie season to a Week 6 benching in Year 2, to a rebuilt offensive coaching staff that's focused on teaching, there's a lot to talk about.
We've already seen the typical cycle of folks overreacting to rough 1-on-1 reps, but the vibes outside the building don't seem to match those inside. In conversations with his coaches and teammates, all I've heard about is Penning's approach and confidence this season, and how that should be a key to him developing into a quality starter.
Now, here's the thing: The key word is develop. He's a young player who needs to be able to play through mistakes and learn from them. The biggest issue is that there's a rookie across from him in a similar situation, but I do think this team is committed to at least riding this train to the end to see what all they can get from big Trev. He seems to be holding up his end. He put in work with Terron Armstead and with other programs this offseason.
He's got a long way to go. I don't expect Pro Bowl Trevor. I do expect him to get better and hold up as a serviceable right tackle, particularly in an offense that's better equipped to play to his strengths. We'll have to wait and see.
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