The New Orleans Saints have a confusing and uncomfortable situation brewing with an apparently injured Derek Carr, but it extends well beyond the stunning injury news that was dropped at the end of last week.
The issue rolls back to even before the 2024 season, as NOLA.com's Jeff Duncan broke down on WWL Radio this week.
"I think frankly, it’s been mishandled from the start," Duncan said. "I mean, the organization a year ago, when they elected to go into Carr’s contract and restructure back then, if you looked at the original deal they gave him, they could’ve had an out after the ’24 season, but once they went in and kicked that can down the road again, and they probably had to do it because of the circumstances with the cap, they really tied themselves to him and he knew that. He and his camp understood that they had the leverage and they played it and they’re playing it right now."
Listen to the full interview with Jeff Duncan in the player above. Can't see the embed? Click here.
That leverage seemed to play out last week, when news leaked that Carr was dealing with a shoulder injury that could require surgery and threaten his 2025 season. No injury had been made public prior to that time and Carr himself had stayed out of the spotlight. Head coach Kellen Moore and GM Mickey Loomis had committed publicly to the QB, though rumblings of discontentment persisted.
The Saints, having missed the playoffs each of the past four seasons, hold the No. 9 overall pick in the upcoming draft and have long been considered one of the favorites to pick a young QB. That news cycle has shifted into high gear since the Carr injury news broke.
“I don’t think right now … this team is in position to gamble," Duncan said. "They’re coming off the worst season they’ve had in basically two decades. They’ve got needs across the board. Their defense is aging, they’ve got salary cap problems. They have to hit on this pick at No. 9. I don’t think they can roll the dice here."
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As far as Carr, the veteran QB is set to enter Year 3 of a $150 million contract signed ahead of the 2023 season. He started all 17 games in his first season in New Orleans but suffered a shoulder sprain that affected his play throughout the course of the season. Carr reported that there were no issues with the shoulder heading into the 2024 season, another year that was marred by injuries, with seven games missed due to an oblique issue and later a fractured hand. Carr has led the Saints to a record of 14-13 in his 27 starts, with the team narrowly missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker in 2023. The Saints went 0-7 in games started by other players in 2024, including six by rookie Spencer Rattler, who would currently be the presumptive favorite to start if Carr is unable to play. Jake Haener and Ben DiNucci make up the rest of the Saints QB room.
As Duncan noted, the Saints have opted twice now to restructure Carr's contract, converting base salary to a signing bonus and pushing more of the cap burden into the future, essentially guaranteeing more of Carr's contract. If the Saints moved on from Carr this offseason as a post-June 1 cut, they'd be on the hook for $20 million against the cap this season, and another $59 million in dead cap charges in 2026. If they held off and did the same thing next offseason, the cap charges would be $19 million in 2026, then $40 million in 2027.
"I don’t know what the endgame is here," Duncan continued, relative to Carr's situation. "Are they trying to force a trade? Are they trying to force his way out of town? There’s a lot of unanswered questions."
The Saints are currently in possession of 9 draft picks, including Nos. 9, 40, 71 and 93 overall. The first round of the draft is scheduled for April 24 in Green Bay.